{"id":39677,"date":"2024-01-03T14:39:55","date_gmt":"2024-01-03T13:39:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cmm.imgw.pl\/?p=39677"},"modified":"2024-01-03T22:35:24","modified_gmt":"2024-01-03T21:35:24","slug":"prognoza-zachmurzenia-dla-obserwatorow-nieba-kwadrantydy-noc-3-4-stycznia-2024-roku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cmm.imgw.pl\/?p=39677","title":{"rendered":"Prognoza zachmurzenia dla obserwator\u00f3w nieba \u2013 Kwadrantydy (noc 3\/4 stycznia 2024 roku)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Tre\u015b\u0107 komentarza do numerycznych prognoz meteorologicznych stanowi niezale\u017cne od biura prognoz meteorologicznych opracowanie wykonane w Centrum Modelowania Meteorologicznego i nie stanowi oficjalnej prognozy synoptycznej IMGW-PIB.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opracowanie:<\/strong> dr Grzegorz Duniec, Centrum Modelowania Meteorologicznego IMGW-PIB<\/mark><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

Sytuacja synoptyczna, 3 I 2024 roku, godzina 06 UTC.<\/p>\n

\"Obraz<\/p>\n

Polska jest w zasi\u0119gu uk\u0142adu niskiego ci\u015bnienia z uk\u0142adem front\u00f3w atmosferycznych zalegaj\u0105cych w zatokach niskiego ci\u015bnienia i przemieszczaj\u0105cych si\u0119 powoli na wsch\u00f3d.<\/p>\n

\"Obraz \"Obraz \"Obraz \"Obraz<\/p>\n

Na froncie okluzji przebiegaj\u0105cym od Wielkiej Brytanii przez Morze P\u00f3\u0142nocne oraz Danie, wyst\u0119puj\u0105 dwie zamkni\u0119te cyrkulacje. Jeden o\u015brodek 975 hPa zalega nad Morzem P\u00f3\u0142nocnym, a drugi 977, 1 hPa znajduje si\u0119 nad Atlantykiem w pobli\u017cu Wysp Brytyjskich. Wspomniane o\u015brodki rozbudowa\u0142y si\u0119 do poziomu 700 hPa. Wy\u017cej izohipsy bardzo szybko si\u0119 prostuj\u0105.<\/p>\n

Nad Polsk\u0105 zalega polarno-morska masa powietrza.<\/p>\n

\"Obraz<\/p>\n

W nocy nadal pozostaniemy pod wp\u0142ywem front\u00f3w atmosferycznych.<\/p>\n

Prognoza zachmurzenia \u2013 model ICON<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Obraz \"Obraz<\/p>\n

Zachmurzenie og\u00f3lne ca\u0142kowite.<\/p>\n

\"Obraz \"Obraz \"Obraz<\/p>\n

Na niebie chmury pi\u0119tra niskiego Stratus fractus, Stratocumulus. <\/span>W wielu rejonach wyst\u0119powa\u0107 b\u0119d\u0105 chmury<\/span> Cumulus congestus lub Cumulonimbus, z wierzcho\u0142kami do 7,3 km.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Obraz \"Obraz \"Obraz<\/p>\n

W pi\u0119trze chmur \u015brednich wyst\u0119powa\u0107 b\u0119d\u0105 chmury Altocumulus stratiformis perlucidus\/translucidus\/opacus oraz Altostratus translucidus\/opacus.<\/p>\n

\"Obraz \"Obraz \"Obraz<\/p>\n

W pi\u0119trze chmur wysokich wyst\u0119powa\u0107 b\u0119d\u0105 chmury Cirrus fibratus\/spissatus oraz Cirrostratus fibratus. W pi\u0119trze chmur wysokich wyst\u0119powa\u0107 b\u0119dzie wi\u0119cej przeja\u015bnie\u0144, jednak nie wp\u0142ynie to na warunki obserwacyjne.<\/p>\n

Model ALARO<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Z symulacji modelem ALARO wynika, \u017ce na po\u0142udniu Polski wyst\u0105pi zachmurzenie umiarkowane (lokalnie rozpogodzenia). Na pozosta\u0142ym obszarze zachmurzenie du\u017ce i ca\u0142kowite.<\/p>\n

Model ECMWF<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Symulacje pola zachmurzenia ca\u0142kowitego modelem ECMWF s\u0105 bardziej \u0142askawe. Obszar\u00f3w z zachmurzeniem umiarkowanym powinno wyst\u0119powa\u0107 wi\u0119cej. Lokalnie i chwilowo mog\u0105 wyst\u0119powa\u0107 przeb\u0142yski czystego nieba lub nieba pokrytego chmurami Cirrus i\/lub Cirrostratus.<\/p>\n

Model GFS<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Podobne wyniku pola zachmurzenia otrzymuje si\u0119 w symulacjach modelem GFS.<\/p>\n

Prognoza warunk\u00f3w obserwacyjnych<\/strong><\/p>\n

Brak dobrych warunk\u00f3w do obserwacji nieba. Mog\u0105 wyst\u0119powa\u0107 lokalnie obszary, gdzie przez chmury b\u0119dzie przebija\u0107 czyste sklepienie niebieskie lub pokryte chmurami Cirrus lub Cirrostratus z towarzysz\u0105cymi chmurami pi\u0119tra \u015bredniego i niskiego. Jednak nie b\u0119d\u0105 to warunki zadowalaj\u0105ce mi\u0142o\u015bnik\u00f3w obserwacji astronomicznych.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Komentarz do numerycznych prognoz pogody opracowany w Centrum Modelowania Meteorologicznego IMGW-PIB.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"0","ocean_second_sidebar":"0","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"off","ocean_display_header":"off","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"0","ocean_custom_header_template":"0","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"0","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"0","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"off","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"off","ocean_custom_footer_template":"0","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[]},"categories":[93],"tags":[138,139,68,95,143,141,85,73,97,98,142,76,94,99,71,67,96,140,79],"yoast_head":"\nPrognoza zachmurzenia dla obserwator\u00f3w nieba \u2013 Kwadrantydy (noc 3\/4 stycznia 2024 roku) - 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