{"id":38659,"date":"2023-12-08T16:12:28","date_gmt":"2023-12-08T15:12:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cmm.imgw.pl\/?p=38659"},"modified":"2023-12-08T17:48:55","modified_gmt":"2023-12-08T16:48:55","slug":"imgw-pib-cmm-artykul-naukowy-multimodel-rmets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cmm.imgw.pl\/?p=38659","title":{"rendered":"Artyku\u0142 naukowy, multimodel &#8211; RMeTS"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Publikacja prezentuje opart\u0105 na uczeniu maszynowym metod\u0119 prognozowania temperatury powietrza na podstawie danych pochodz\u0105cych z trzech modeli numerycznych dzia\u0142aj\u0105cych operacyjnie w IMGW: ALARO, AROME oraz COSMO. Prognozy ka\u017cdego z tych modeli w r\u00f3\u017cnym stopniu obarczone s\u0105 b\u0142\u0119dami systematycznymi, co uwarunkowane jest m.in. zr\u00f3\u017cnicowan\u0105 rozdzielczo\u015bci\u0105 przestrzenn\u0105, odmiennymi parametryzacjami zjawisk fizycznych, ale tak\u017ce aktualn\u0105 sytuacj\u0105 synoptyczn\u0105. Na podstawie historycznej relacji pomi\u0119dzy prognoz\u0105 a obserwacj\u0105, przy pomocy uczenia maszynowego generowana jest syntetyczna prognoza, kt\u00f3rej b\u0142\u0105d RMSE jest o ponad 25% mniejszy wzgl\u0119dem najlepszego modelu sk\u0142adowego. Szczeg\u00f3\u0142owa weryfikacja pokaza\u0142a, \u017ce w najwi\u0119kszym stopniu zredukowany zosta\u0142 b\u0142\u0105d niedoszacowania spadk\u00f3w temperatury w nocy i o poranku w miesi\u0105cach letnich.<br \/>\nLink do artyku\u0142u: <a href=\"https:\/\/rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1002\/qj.4613\">https:\/\/rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1002\/qj.4613<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full\" src=\"\/cmm\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Obraz1-1.jpg\" width=\"863\" height=\"512\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">&#8212; UDOST\u0118PNIJ &#8212;<!--more--><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Publikacja prezentuje opart\u0105 na uczeniu maszynowym metod\u0119 prognozowania temperatury powietrza na podstawie danych pochodz\u0105cych z trzech modeli numerycznych dzia\u0142aj\u0105cych operacyjnie w IMGW: ALARO, AROME oraz COSMO. Prognozy ka\u017cdego z tych modeli w r\u00f3\u017cnym stopniu obarczone s\u0105 b\u0142\u0119dami systematycznymi, co uwarunkowane jest m.in. zr\u00f3\u017cnicowan\u0105 rozdzielczo\u015bci\u0105 przestrzenn\u0105, odmiennymi parametryzacjami zjawisk fizycznych, ale tak\u017ce aktualn\u0105 sytuacj\u0105 synoptyczn\u0105. Na [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"0","ocean_second_sidebar":"0","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"off","ocean_display_header":"off","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"0","ocean_custom_header_template":"0","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"0","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"0","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"off","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"off","ocean_custom_footer_template":"0","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"off","ocean_gallery_id":[]},"categories":[137],"tags":[68,85,272,271],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.5.1 - 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