{"id":37391,"date":"2023-09-29T12:02:35","date_gmt":"2023-09-29T10:02:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cmm.imgw.pl\/?p=37391"},"modified":"2023-09-29T12:26:50","modified_gmt":"2023-09-29T10:26:50","slug":"prognoza-pola-zachmurzenia-i-warunkow-obserwacyjnych-dla-obserwatorow-superpelni","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cmm.imgw.pl\/?p=37391","title":{"rendered":"Prognoza pola zachmurzenia i warunk\u00f3w obserwacyjnych dla obserwator\u00f3w Superpe\u0142ni"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Tre\u015b\u0107 komentarza do numerycznych prognoz meteorologicznych stanowi niezale\u017cne od biura prognoz meteorologicznych opracowanie wykonane w Centrum Modelowania Meteorologicznego i nie stanowi oficjalnej prognozy synoptycznej IMGW-PIB.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opracowanie:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

dr Grzegorz Duniec, Centrum Modelowania Meteorologicznego IMGW-PIB<\/mark><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

Sytuacja synoptyczna<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Obraz<\/p>\n

Polska jest na skraju uk\u0142adu wysokiego ci\u015bnienia, kt\u00f3rego o\u015brodek 1027,1 hPa zalega nad zachodni\u0105 Rosj\u0105 w pobli\u017cu granicy z Bia\u0142orusi\u0105.<\/p>\n

Prognostyczna sytuacja synoptyczna<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Obraz \"Obraz<\/p>\n

W ci\u0105gu najbli\u017cszej doby pogod\u0119 w Polsce zacznie kszta\u0142towa\u0107 p\u0142ytka zatoka niskiego ci\u015bnienia w kt\u00f3rej zalega\u0107 b\u0119dzie ch\u0142odny front atmosferyczny przemieszczaj\u0105cy si\u0119 na wsch\u00f3d. W godzinach nocnych zatoka zaznaczy si\u0119 na zachodzie Polski.<\/p>\n

G\u00f3rne pole ci\u015bnienia<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Obraz <\/p>\n

W pi\u0105tek w ci\u0105gu dnia nap\u0142ywa\u0107 jeszcze b\u0119dzie ciep\u0142e powietrze (ujemny k\u0105t adwekcji) z po\u0142udniowego zachodu. W nocy za przemieszczaj\u0105cym si\u0119 frontem atmosferycznym nap\u0142ywa\u0107 b\u0119dzie powietrze ch\u0142odniejsze (nad Polsk\u0105 wyst\u0119powa\u0107 b\u0119dzie dodatni k\u0105t adwekcji).<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Co wida\u0107 na mapach pola temperatury na wysoko\u015bci 850 hPa, 700 hPa oraz 500 hPa.<\/p>\n

Topografia wzgl\u0119dna<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Z analizy map topografii wzgl\u0119dnej wynika, \u017ce Polska pozostaje jeszcze w ciep\u0142ej masie powietrza. W ci\u0105gu dnia przebiega\u0107 b\u0119dzie o\u015b klina ciep\u0142a. Na po\u0142udniowym zachodzie Polski \u015brednia temperatura warstwy o grubo\u015bci 500 hPa b\u0119dzie najwy\u017csza. Z up\u0142ywem czasu nad p\u00f3\u0142nocno zachodni\u0105 Polsk\u0105 zaznaczy si\u0119 strefa zwi\u0119kszonego gradientu geopotencja\u0142u wzgl\u0119dnego, co jest zwi\u0105zane z frontem atmosferycznym, a sama strefa zag\u0119szczonych izohips wzgl\u0119dnych jest nieco przesuni\u0119ta w obszar ch\u0142odniejszej masy powietrza. Od zachodu zacznie do Polski nasuwa\u0107 si\u0119 zatoka ch\u0142odniejszego powietrza.<\/p>\n

Topografia bezwzgl\u0119dna TB500 oraz pole wilgotno\u015bci<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Z mapa topografii bezwzgl\u0119dnej TB500 oraz wilgotno\u015bci na tym samym poziomie, zauwa\u017cy\u0107 mo\u017cna, \u017ce wraz z przemieszczaj\u0105cym si\u0119 frontem od zachodu zacznie si\u0119 przemieszcza\u0107 z zachodu na wsch\u00f3d strefa zwi\u0119kszonej wilgotno\u015bci.<\/p>\n

Deficyt punktu rosy<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Diagramy aerologiczne<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Pole zachmurzenia<\/strong><\/p>\n

Z analizy pola deficytu punktu rosy, diagram\u00f3w aerologicznych wynika, \u017ce w strefie frontu atmosferycznego nale\u017cy spodziewa\u0107 si\u0119 chmur w ka\u017cdym pi\u0119trze chmurowym.<\/p>\n

Zachmurzenie og\u00f3lne<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

W godzinach wieczornych i nocnych jedynie w po\u0142udniowo wschodniej Polsce nale\u017cy spodziewa\u0107 si\u0119 braku chmur lub chmur Cirrus fibratus. Na pozosta\u0142ym obszarze kraju wyst\u0119powa\u0107 b\u0119dzie zachmurzenie umiarkowane i du\u017ce, a w strefie frontu ca\u0142kowite.<\/span><\/p>\n

Chmury pi\u0119tra niskiego<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Pocz\u0105tkowo na zachodzi i p\u00f3\u0142nocy a\u017c po Gda\u0144sk wyst\u0119powa\u0107 b\u0119d\u0105 chmury Stratocumulus oraz Stratus (g\u0142\u00f3wnie na zachodzie kraju, lokalnie na p\u00f3\u0142nocy Polski. Lokalnie, w strefie frontu, wbudowane mog\u0105 by\u0107 chmury Cumulus congestus lub Cumulonimbus. Strefa zachmurzenia pi\u0119tra niskiego b\u0119dzie powoli przemieszcza\u0142a si\u0119 na wsch\u00f3d.<\/p>\n

Chmury pi\u0119tra \u015bredniego<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Wraz z przemieszczaj\u0105cym si\u0119 frontem w pi\u0119trze \u015brednim nale\u017cy oczekiwa\u0107 chmur Altocumulus. Mo\u017cliwe tak\u017ce strefy chmur Altostratus.<\/p>\n

Zachmurzenie pi\u0119tra wysokiego<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Na niebie nale\u017cy tak\u017ce oczekiwa\u0107 chmur Cirrus fibratus\/spissatus, Cirrostratus fibratus.<\/p>\n

Warunki obserwacyjne<\/strong><\/p>\n

Najlepsze warunki do obserwacji Superpe\u0142ni<\/em> b\u0119d\u0105 mieli obserwatorzy z po\u0142udniowo wschodniej Polski. Warunki b\u0119d\u0105 stopniowo si\u0119 pogarsza\u0142y w kierunku zachodnim. Szczeg\u00f3\u0142y na mapach pola zachmurzenia.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Komentarz do numerycznych prognoz pogody opracowany w Centrum Modelowania Meteorologicznego IMGW-PIB.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"0","ocean_second_sidebar":"0","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"0","ocean_custom_header_template":"0","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"0","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"0","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"0","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[]},"categories":[93],"tags":[138,139,68,95,143,141,85,73,97,98,142,76,94,99,71,67,96,140,79],"yoast_head":"\nPrognoza pola zachmurzenia i warunk\u00f3w obserwacyjnych dla obserwator\u00f3w Superpe\u0142ni - 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