{"id":33334,"date":"2023-07-01T09:09:41","date_gmt":"2023-07-01T07:09:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cmm.imgw.pl\/?p=33334"},"modified":"2023-07-01T09:09:43","modified_gmt":"2023-07-01T07:09:43","slug":"komentarz-do-numerycznych-prognoz-pogody-01-07-2023-opener-festival-2023-dzien-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cmm.imgw.pl\/?p=33334","title":{"rendered":"Komentarz do numerycznych prognoz pogody (01.07.2023) Open’er Festival 2023 – dzie\u0144 4"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Tre\u015b\u0107 komentarza do numerycznych prognoz meteorologicznych stanowi niezale\u017cne od biura prognoz meteorologicznych opracowanie wykonane w Centrum Modelowania Meteorologicznego i nie stanowi oficjalnej prognozy synoptycznej IMGW-PIB.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opracowanie:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

dr Grzegorz Duniec, Centrum Modelowania Meteorologicznego IMGW-PIB<\/mark><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

Sytuacja synoptyczna w Polsce<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Obraz<\/p>\n

Po\u0142udniowo wschodnie rejony kraju w zasi\u0119gu zatoki niskiego ci\u015bnienia, w kt\u00f3rej znajduje si\u0119 front ch\u0142odny. W dzie\u0144 Polska dostanie si\u0119 w obszar podwy\u017cszonego ci\u015bnienia.<\/p>\n

\"Obraz<\/p>\n

W nocy od zachodu w Polsce pogod\u0119 b\u0119dzie kszta\u0142towa\u0142a rozleg\u0142a zatoka niskiego ci\u015bnienia zwi\u0105zana z ni\u017cem znad Norwegii, kt\u00f3ry jest w stadium okludowania i wype\u0142niania. O\u015brodek przemie\u015bci si\u0119 znad Morza P\u00f3\u0142nocnego nad Norwegi\u0119. Na pogod\u0119 w Polsce wp\u0142yw b\u0119dzie mia\u0142 front okluzji zalegaj\u0105cy ww. zatoce i przemieszczaj\u0105cy si\u0119 na wsch\u00f3d.<\/p>\n

Analiza g\u00f3rnego pola barycznego<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Ni\u017c znad Morza P\u00f3\u0142nocnego jest uk\u0142adem barycznym rozbudowanym ku g\u00f3rze, w kt\u00f3rym proces pog\u0142\u0119biania zachodzi na poziomie 850 hPa, za\u015b na poziomie 500 hPa i 300 hPa wir cykloniczny b\u0119dzie si\u0119 wype\u0142nia\u0142.<\/p>\n

Analiza termiczna<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Thck<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Z analizy geopotencja\u0142u wzgl\u0119dnego wynika, \u017ce \u015brednia temperatura warstwy o grubo\u015bci 500 hPa jest najwy\u017csza na po\u0142udniu Polski, za\u015b najni\u017csza na p\u00f3\u0142nocy kraju. Na poziomie strumienia steruj\u0105cego TB500 nad Polsk\u0105 zalega\u0142 klin oraz wyst\u0119powa\u0142 dodatni k\u0105t adwekcji wskazuj\u0105cy na adwekcj\u0119 ch\u0142odu. P\u00f3\u0142nocny rejon Polski b\u0119dzie na skraju zatoki ch\u0142odu. Do Polski nap\u0142ywa\u0107 b\u0119dzie powietrze z zachodu polarno-morskie.<\/p>\n

Prognoza temperatury powietrza w Gdyni<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

W najcieplejszej porze dnia nale\u017cy spodziewa\u0107 si\u0119 temperatury 24\u00b0C. Wieczorem (godzina 20) temperatura obni\u017cy si\u0119 do 19\u00b0C. Oko\u0142o godziny 2 w nocy (2 VII), 15\u00b0C.<\/p>\n

Prognoza temperatury odczuwalnej w Gdyni<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

W najcieplejszej porze dnia nale\u017cy spodziewa\u0107 si\u0119 temperatury odczuwalnej o warto\u015bci oko\u0142o 24\u00b0C. Wieczorem (godzina 20) temperatura odczuwalna obni\u017cy si\u0119 do 19\u00b0C. Oko\u0142o godziny 2 (2 VII) temperatura odczuwalna wyniesie 15\u00b0C.<\/p>\n

Prognoza temperatury gruntu w Gdyni<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

W najcieplejszej porze dnia nale\u017cy grunt si\u0119 nagrzeje do temperatury 27\u00b0C. Wieczorem (godzina 20) temperatura gruntu wyniesie 18\u00b0C. Oko\u0142o godziny 2 (1 VII) temperatura powierzchni obni\u017cy si\u0119 do 15\u00b0C.<\/p>\n

Prognoza wiatru w Gdyni<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Wiatr z kierunk\u00f3w zmiennych. W nocy z kierunku po\u0142udniowego. \u015arednia pr\u0119dko\u015b\u0107 wiatru wyniesie 5-12 km\/h.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Pr\u0119dko\u015b\u0107 wiatru w porywach b\u0119dzie osi\u0105ga\u0142a warto\u015b\u0107 12-27 km\/h.<\/p>\n

Prognoza wilgotno\u015bci w Gdyni<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

W ci\u0105gu dnia wilgotno\u015b\u0107 powietrza wyniesie 41-60%. Wieczorem i w nocy wzrost wilgotno\u015bci powietrza do 64-95%.<\/p>\n

Prognoza zachmurzenia<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Obraz \"Obraz \"Obraz \"Obraz \"Obraz<\/p>\n

W Gdyni zachmurzenie og\u00f3lne du\u017ce i ca\u0142kowite. Mog\u0105 zdarzy\u0107 si\u0119 chwile, w kt\u00f3rych przez warstw\u0119 chmur przebija\u0107 b\u0119dzie S\u0142o\u0144ce oraz zauwa\u017cy\u0107 b\u0119dzie mo\u017cna b\u0142\u0119kit nieba.<\/p>\n

Prognoza opad\u00f3w<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

W Gdyni w godzinach p\u00f3\u017ano popo\u0142udniowych lub wieczornych dotrze strefa s\u0142abych opad\u00f3w deszczu. Nale\u017cy zaznaczy\u0107, \u017ce wzgl\u0119du na ograniczenia modeli numerycznych do czasu prognozowanego opadu nale\u017cy wzi\u0105\u0107 poprawk\u0119 do +\/-2 godzin.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Komentarz do numerycznych prognoz pogody opracowany w Centrum Modelowania Meteorologicznego IMGW-PIB.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"0","ocean_second_sidebar":"0","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"0","ocean_custom_header_template":"0","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"0","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"0","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"0","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[]},"categories":[93],"tags":[138,139,68,95,143,141,85,73,97,98,142,76,94,99,71,67,96,140,79],"yoast_head":"\nKomentarz do numerycznych prognoz pogody (01.07.2023) Open'er Festival 2023 - 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