{"id":28833,"date":"2023-05-06T15:26:05","date_gmt":"2023-05-06T13:26:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cmm.imgw.pl\/?p=28833"},"modified":"2023-05-06T15:26:09","modified_gmt":"2023-05-06T13:26:09","slug":"komentarz-do-numerycznych-prognoz-pogody-6-7-05-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cmm.imgw.pl\/?p=28833","title":{"rendered":"Aktualizacja komentarza do numerycznych prognoz pogody (6\/7.05.2023)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Tre\u015b\u0107 komentarza do numerycznych prognoz meteorologicznych stanowi niezale\u017cne od biura prognoz meteorologicznych opracowanie wykonane w Centrum Modelowania Meteorologicznego i nie stanowi oficjalnej prognozy synoptycznej IMGW-PIB.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opracowanie:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

dr Grzegorz Duniec, Centrum Modelowania Meteorologicznego IMGW-PIB<\/mark><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

Komentarz dodatkowy do numerycznych prognoz meteorologicznych – 6 i 7 V 2023 r.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Opis sytuacji synoptycznej w Polsce z godziny 6 UTC, 6 V 2023 roku<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Zachodni rejon Polski w zasi\u0119gu uk\u0142adu niskiego ci\u015bnienia. Rano p\u00f3\u0142nocno zachodni rejon kraju na skraju wy\u017cu z o\u015brodkiem 1032,8 hPa na Ba\u0142tykiem. Do zachodnich granic kraju zbli\u017ca si\u0119 front ciep\u0142y oraz punkt zwarcia front\u00f3w (punkt okluzji). W ci\u0105gu dnia nad Polsk\u0105 przemieszcza\u0107 si\u0119 b\u0119dzie front atmosferyczny.<\/p>\n

Rozw\u00f3j sytuacji barycznej nad Polsk\u0105 <\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Wy\u017c znad Ba\u0142tyku b\u0119dzie przemieszcza\u0142 si\u0119 na wsch\u00f3d. Do jutra o\u015brodek 1030 hPa dotrze do Estonii. Wy\u017c os\u0142abnie. Po\u0142udniowe rejony kraju pozostan\u0105 prawdopodobnie pod wp\u0142ywem frontu ch\u0142odnego. P\u00f3\u0142nocna Polska w zasi\u0119gu wy\u017cu.<\/p>\n

Prognostyczne diagramy aerologiczne<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Szczecin<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Suwa\u0142ki<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Wroc\u0142aw<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Rzesz\u00f3w<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u0141\u00f3d\u017a<\/p>\n

Prognoza zachmurzenia<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

W sobot\u0119 w ci\u0105gu dnia zachmurzenie ca\u0142kowite i du\u017ce. W nocy na p\u00f3\u0142nocy kraju zachmurzenie umiarkowane. Na po\u0142udniu i na zachodzie kraju lokalnie zachmurzenie umiarkowane. W niedziel\u0119 nad ranem oraz w ci\u0105gu dnia zachmurzenie ma\u0142e na p\u00f3\u0142nocy kraju. Na pozosta\u0142ym obszarze kraju zachmurzenie du\u017ce. Pod wiecz\u00f3r w p\u00f3\u0142nocno wschodniej cz\u0119\u015bci kraju wzrost zachmurzenie do umiarkowanego i du\u017cego.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Na niebie nale\u017cy si\u0119 spodziewa\u0107 chmur pi\u0119tra niskiego a mianowicie chmur Stratocumulus, Stratus fractus (St fra altostratogenitus\/St fra cumulonimbogenitus na po\u0142udniu kraju). Na po\u0142udniu kraju mo\u017cliwe chmury Cumulonimbus. W nocy g\u0142\u00f3wnie Stratocumulus oraz Stratus fractus lokalnie nebulosus. W niedziel\u0119 chmury Stratocumulus, Cumulus.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

W dzie\u0144 na niebie tak\u017ce Altocumulus stratiformis duplicatus, Altostratus opacus duplicatus. W strefie chmur Cb mog\u0105 powstawa\u0107 chmury Altocumulus cumulonimbogenitus. Strefa zachmurzenia pi\u0119tra \u015bredniego przemieszcza\u0107 si\u0119 b\u0119dzie na wsch\u00f3d. Jutro w dzie\u0144 g\u0142\u00f3wnie chmury Altocumulus perlucidus i\/lub translucidus. W niedziel\u0119 wieczorem chmury Altocumulus. Na po\u0142udniu kraju mo\u017cliwy Altocumulus lenticularis.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Opr\u00f3cz chmur pi\u0119tra \u015bredniego i niskiego na niebie wyst\u0119powa\u0107 b\u0119d\u0105 tak\u017ce chmury pi\u0119tra wysokiego: Cirrus fibratus\/spissatus\/duplicatus, Cirrostratus fibratus i\/lub duplicatus. Lokalnie Cirrocumulus. Strefa chmur pi\u0119tra wysokiego r\u00f3wnie\u017c b\u0119dzie przemieszcza\u0142a si\u0119 na wsch\u00f3d. Jutro w niedziel\u0119 jeszcze na po\u0142udniowym wschodzie mo\u017cliwy Cirrostratus fibratus. Na pozosta\u0142ym obszarze Cirrus fibratus\/spissatus.<\/p>\n

Prognoza opad\u00f3w<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

W ci\u0105gu dnia w wielu miejscach intensywne opady ci\u0105g\u0142e deszczu. Na po\u0142udniu kraju mo\u017cliwe intensywne opady przelotne deszczu. Strefa b\u0119dzie przemieszcza\u0142a si\u0119 na wsch\u00f3d. Jutro jedynie w po\u0142udniowo wschodniej Polsce opady deszczu, lokalnie o umiarkowanej intensywno\u015bci.<\/p>\n

Prognoza wy\u0142adowa\u0144<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong> <\/p>\n

Zgodnie z wczorajsz\u0105 prognoz\u0105 w woj. ma\u0142opolskim wyst\u0105pi\u0142y pojedyncze wy\u0142adowania doziemne. Prognoza zjawisk burzowych jest utrzymana w dalszym ci\u0105gu. Jedynie w rejonie po\u0142udniowo wschodniej Polski prawdopodobie\u0144stwo wyst\u0105pienia wy\u0142adowa\u0144 ocenia si\u0119 na 10%.<\/p>\n

Aktualne prognostyczny obszar wyst\u0105pienia burz poni\u017cej.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Z najnowszych symulacji wynika, \u017ce r\u00f3wnie\u017c w woj. \u015bwi\u0119tokrzyskim, \u0142\u00f3dzkim, mazowieckim oraz lubelskim, niewykluczone pojedyncze wy\u0142adowania. Prawdopodobie\u0144stwo wyst\u0105pienia wy\u0142adowa\u0144 oceniam na 5-10 %.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Na po\u0142udniu kraju wierzcho\u0142ki chmur Cb osi\u0105ga\u0107 mog\u0105 wysoko\u015b\u0107 10-11 km. Po po\u0142udniu i wieczorem w woj. \u015bwi\u0119tokrzyskim r\u00f3wnie\u017c powinny pojawi\u0107 si\u0119 pojedyncze chmury Cb z wierzcho\u0142kiem do 7 km. <\/p>\n

Temperatura wierzcho\u0142ka na poziomie -20\/-30st. C, zatem zaistniej\u0105 warunki do elektryzacji chmury, w wyniku kt\u00f3rej mog\u0105 by\u0107 zainicjowane pojedyncze wy\u0142adowania.<\/p>\n

Prognoza widzialno\u015bci<\/strong><\/p>\n

W strefie opad\u00f3w intensywnych lokalne ograniczenie widzialno\u015bci do 2-5 km.<\/p>\n

Prognoza przymrozk\u00f3w<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Obraz<\/p>\n

W woj. podlaskim oraz warmi\u0144sko-mazurskim mo\u017cliwe przygruntowe przymrozki do -1\/-2 st. C.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Komentarz do numerycznych prognoz pogody opracowany w Centrum Modelowania Meteorologicznego IMGW-PIB.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"0","ocean_second_sidebar":"0","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"0","ocean_custom_header_template":"0","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"0","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"0","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"0","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[]},"categories":[93],"tags":[138,139,68,95,143,141,85,73,97,98,142,76,94,99,71,67,96,140,79],"yoast_head":"\nAktualizacja komentarza do numerycznych prognoz pogody (6\/7.05.2023) - 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