{"id":27478,"date":"2023-04-24T12:32:13","date_gmt":"2023-04-24T10:32:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cmm.imgw.pl\/?p=27478"},"modified":"2023-04-24T12:32:15","modified_gmt":"2023-04-24T10:32:15","slug":"komentarz-do-numerycznych-prognoz-pogody-24-25-04-2023-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cmm.imgw.pl\/?p=27478","title":{"rendered":"Aktualizacja komentarza do numerycznych prognoz pogody – analiza wybranych p\u00f3l meteorologicznych"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Tre\u015b\u0107 komentarza do numerycznych prognoz meteorologicznych stanowi niezale\u017cne od biura prognoz meteorologicznych opracowanie wykonane w Centrum Modelowania Meteorologicznego i nie stanowi oficjalnej prognozy synoptycznej IMGW-PIB.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opracowanie:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

dr Grzegorz Duniec, Centrum Modelowania Meteorologicznego IMGW-PIB<\/mark><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

Komentarz do numerycznych prognoz meteorologicznych – dzie\u0144 24 IV 2023 roku<\/strong><\/p>\n

Aktualny synop z terenu Polski<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

We wschodniej cz\u0119\u015bci kraju obserwowane s\u0105 chmury Altocumulus castellanus lub floccus. Wyst\u0119powanie tych chmur wskazuje na g\u0142\u0119bok\u0105 konwekcj\u0119 w atmosferze. Sugeruje to mo\u017cliwo\u015b\u0107, przy sprzyjaj\u0105cych warunkach, rozw\u00f3j chmur Ac cas\/flo w chmury Cumulus congestus, a nast\u0119pnie w chmury Cumulonimbus. Je\u017celi wyst\u0119powa\u0107 b\u0119d\u0105 chmury Cumulus humilis\/mediocris mo\u017ce doj\u015b\u0107 do rozwoju chmur i utworzenia si\u0119 chmur Cumulonimbus.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Z symulacji numerycznych pola zachmurzenia chmurami Cu congestus oraz Cumulonimbus wynika, \u017ce w godzinach popo\u0142udniowych, z prawdopodobie\u0144stwem 40%, w rejonie Polski wschodniej dojdzie do rozwoju chmur Cumulus congestus. Z mniejszym prawdopodobie\u0144stwem nale\u017cy oczekiwa\u0107 rozwoju pojedynczych chmur Cumulonimbus.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Absolutne warto\u015bci Indeksu Potencja\u0142u Wy\u0142adowa\u0144 wynika, \u017ce w godzinach nocnych 24\/25 IV oraz nad ranem mo\u017cliwe s\u0105 w tym rejonie pojedyncze wy\u0142adowania iskrowe.<\/p>\n

Symulacja pola wy\u0142adowa\u0144 atmosferycznych<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Powy\u017cej symulacja pola wy\u0142adowa\u0144.<\/p>\n

Aktualna mikrofizyka chmur<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Aktualny rozw\u00f3j konwekcji oraz burz<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Aktualna zawarto\u015b\u0107 wody opadowe w warstwie oraz ca\u0142kowita zawarto\u015b\u0107 wody opadowej<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Prawdopodobie\u0144stwo ugi\u0119cia tropopauzy nad Europ\u0105<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Zachmurzenie pi\u0119tra wysokiego<\/strong><\/p>\n

Lokalnie mog\u0105 wyst\u0105pi\u0107 tak\u017ce chmury Cirrocumulus.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Komentarz do numerycznych prognoz pogody opracowany w Centrum Modelowania Meteorologicznego IMGW-PIB.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"0","ocean_second_sidebar":"0","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"0","ocean_custom_header_template":"0","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"0","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"0","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"0","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[]},"categories":[93],"tags":[68,95,85,73,97,98,76,94,99,71,96,79],"yoast_head":"\nAktualizacja komentarza do numerycznych prognoz pogody - 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