{"id":15878,"date":"2022-07-28T14:15:35","date_gmt":"2022-07-28T12:15:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cmm.imgw.pl\/?p=15878"},"modified":"2022-07-29T16:07:51","modified_gmt":"2022-07-29T14:07:51","slug":"prognoza-dlugoterminowa-na-zime-2022-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cmm.imgw.pl\/?p=15878","title":{"rendered":"Prognoza d\u0142ugoterminowa na zim\u0119 2022\/2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Warszawa, 27.07.2022 r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opracowa\u0142a: Weronika Wro\u0144ska, CMM IMGW-PIB<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Wizualizacje (model CFS): dr Alan Mandal, CMM IMGW-PIB<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Poni\u017cej przedstawiamy analiz\u0119 z wykorzystaniem prognozy sezonowej udost\u0119pnionej przez ECMWF (Rys.2) oraz na podstawie danych z modelu CFS E3 (Rys.1), kt\u00f3re dost\u0119pne s\u0105 do stycznia 2023 w\u0142\u0105cznie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sezonowa prognoza z ECMWF przedstawia wynik dla miesi\u0119cy od listopada do stycznia. Obrazuje ona anomali\u0119 \u015bredniej miesi\u0119cznej temperatury powietrza dla wymienionych miesi\u0119cy w odniesieniu do okresu referencyjnego 1993-2016. Wynik z CFS zobrazowany zosta\u0142 dla okresu od pa\u017adziernika 2022 do stycznia 2023, dla ka\u017cdego miesi\u0105ca oddzielnie, w odniesieniu do okresu referencyjnego 1990-2020. Modele te zgodnie pokazuj\u0105, \u017ce w Polsce, w okresie poddanym analizie, najprawdopodobniej wyst\u0105pi dodatnia anomalia \u015bredniej miesi\u0119cznej temperatury powietrza. Najwy\u017csza warto\u015b\u0107 anomalii prognozowana jest dla grudnia (model CFS E3). Oznacza to, \u017ce mo\u017ce by\u0107 cieplej o 1.5\u00b0C w por\u00f3wnaniu do \u015bredniej warto\u015bci temperatury, jaka by\u0142a obserwowana w grudniu w przeci\u0105gu 30 lat. Jedynie w listopadzie, w p\u00f3\u0142nocno zachodniej cz\u0119\u015bci kraju, na podstawie modelu CFS, mo\u017ce wyst\u0105pi\u0107 \u015brednia miesi\u0119czna temperatura powietrza zbli\u017cona do warto\u015bci z okresu 1990-2020 (anomalia bliska warto\u015bci 0\u00b0C).<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/cmm.imgw.pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Obraz51-1024x1024.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15879\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cmm.imgw.pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Obraz51-1024x1024.png 1024w, https:\/\/cmm.imgw.pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Obraz51-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/cmm.imgw.pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Obraz51-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/cmm.imgw.pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Obraz51-768x768.png 768w, https:\/\/cmm.imgw.pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Obraz51-600x600.png 600w, https:\/\/cmm.imgw.pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Obraz51.png 1232w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption><strong>Rys. 1.<\/strong> Prognoza anomalii \u015bredniej miesi\u0119cznej temperatury powietrza na okres od pa\u017adziernika 2022&nbsp;r. do stycznia 2023&nbsp;r., w odniesieniu do danych z okresu 1991-2020, wg modelu CFS E3.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"922\" src=\"https:\/\/cmm.imgw.pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/MicrosoftTeams-image-8-1024x922.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15882\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cmm.imgw.pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/MicrosoftTeams-image-8-1024x922.png 1024w, https:\/\/cmm.imgw.pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/MicrosoftTeams-image-8-300x270.png 300w, https:\/\/cmm.imgw.pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/MicrosoftTeams-image-8-768x691.png 768w, https:\/\/cmm.imgw.pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/MicrosoftTeams-image-8-1536x1382.png 1536w, https:\/\/cmm.imgw.pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/MicrosoftTeams-image-8.png 2000w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption><strong>Rys. 2.<\/strong> Prognoza sezonowa anomalii temperatury wyznaczonej na okres od listopada 2022&nbsp;r. do stycznia 2023&nbsp;r., w odniesieniu do danych z okresu 1993-2016, wg modelu ECMWF SEAS5.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opracowano w:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Zak\u0142ad Analiz Meteorologicznych i Prognoz D\u0142ugoterminowych<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Centrum Modelowania Meteorologicznego IMGW-PIB<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Eksperymentalna prognoza d\u0142ugoterminowa opracowywana w Zak\u0142adzie Analiz Meteorologicznych i Prognoz D\u0142ugoterminowych obejmuje 4 miesi\u0105ce w prz\u00f3d, licz\u0105c od miesi\u0105ca kolejnego po tym, w kt\u00f3rym wykonywana jest prognoza. St\u0105d na chwil\u0119 obecn\u0105 dost\u0119pna jest prognoza do listopada. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"0","ocean_second_sidebar":"0","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"0","ocean_custom_header_template":"0","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"0","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"0","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"0","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"off","ocean_gallery_id":[]},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.5.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Prognoza d\u0142ugoterminowa na zim\u0119 2022\/2023 - Laboratorium Modelowania Meteorologicznego CMOK IMGW-PIB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cmm.imgw.pl\/?p=15878\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pl_PL\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Prognoza d\u0142ugoterminowa na zim\u0119 2022\/2023 - Laboratorium Modelowania Meteorologicznego CMOK IMGW-PIB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Eksperymentalna prognoza d\u0142ugoterminowa opracowywana w Zak\u0142adzie Analiz Meteorologicznych i Prognoz D\u0142ugoterminowych obejmuje 4 miesi\u0105ce w prz\u00f3d, licz\u0105c od miesi\u0105ca kolejnego po tym, w kt\u00f3rym wykonywana jest prognoza. 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