FAQ - Pracownia Fizyki i Modelowania Klimatu<\/title>\n \n <link rel=\"stylesheet\" href=\"https:\/\/cdnjs.cloudflare.com\/ajax\/libs\/font-awesome\/6.5.0\/css\/all.min.css\" crossorigin=\"anonymous\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" \/>\n <style>\n * {\n margin: 0;\n padding: 0;\n box-sizing: border-box;\n }\n\n body {\n font-family: Arial, sans-serif;\n background-color: #f5f5f5;\n line-height: 1.6;\n }\n\n \/* Language Switcher *\/\n .language-switcher {\n position: fixed;\n top: 20px;\n right: 20px;\n z-index: 1000;\n display: flex;\n gap: 5px;\n }\n\n .language-switcher button {\n background-color: #002147;\n color: white;\n border: none;\n padding: 8px 12px;\n margin: 0 2px;\n border-radius: 4px;\n cursor: pointer;\n font-weight: 500;\n font-size: 18px;\n transition: all 0.3s ease;\n min-width: 40px;\n display: flex;\n align-items: center;\n justify-content: center;\n }\n\n .language-switcher button:hover {\n background-color: #003366;\n }\n\n .language-switcher button.active {\n 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font-size: 14px;\n padding: 12px 15px;\n }\n }\n <\/style>\n<\/head>\n<body>\n \n <div class=\"language-switcher\">\n <button onclick=\"switchLanguage('pl')\" id=\"btn-pl\" class=\"active\" title=\"Polski\">\ud83c\uddf5\ud83c\uddf1<\/button>\n <button onclick=\"switchLanguage('en')\" id=\"btn-en\" title=\"English\">\ud83c\uddec\ud83c\udde7<\/button>\n <\/div>\n\n \n <div class=\"header\">\n <img id=\"header-image\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Wizytowka-PFiMK_www.png\" alt=\"Pracownia Fizyki i Modelowania Klimatu\">\n <\/div>\n\n \n <div class=\"nav-bar\">\n <a href=\"\/?page_id=45309\" data-query=\"?page_id=45309\" class=\"nav-link\">\n <span class=\"icon\"><i class=\"fas fa-home\"><\/i><\/span>\n <\/a>\n <a href=\"\/?page_id=45318\" data-query=\"?page_id=45318\" class=\"nav-link\" id=\"nav-about\">O Pracowni<\/a>\n <a href=\"\/?page_id=45603\" data-query=\"?page_id=45603\" class=\"nav-link active\" id=\"nav-faq\">FAQ<\/a>\n <a href=\"\/?page_id=45605\" data-query=\"?page_id=45605\" class=\"nav-link\" id=\"nav-dictionary\">S\u0142ownik<\/a>\n <a href=\"\/?page_id=45610\" data-query=\"?page_id=45610\" class=\"nav-link\" id=\"nav-studies\">Opracowania<\/a>\n <\/div>\n\n \n <div class=\"content\">\n \n <div id=\"content-pl\">\n <div class=\"accordion\">\n \n <div class=\"accordion-item\">\n <div class=\"accordion-header\" onclick=\"toggleAccordion(this)\">\n <span>Modelowanie klimatu - klucz do zrozumienia i adaptacji<\/span>\n <span class=\"accordion-icon\">\u25bc<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"accordion-content\">\n <div class=\"accordion-body\">\n <p>Globalny wzrost \u015bredniej temperatury powietrza przy powierzchni Ziemi obserwuje si\u0119 od pocz\u0105tku systematycznych pomiar\u00f3w instrumentalnych, czyli od po\u0142owy XIX wieku. Obecnie temperatura przekroczy\u0142a najwy\u017csz\u0105 od z okresu ostatnich 100 tysi\u0119cy lat. Pomimo okresowych waha\u0144, trend ten jest jednoznacznie wzrostowy a od po\u0142owy lat 70 XX wieku gwa\u0142townie przyspieszy\u0142 w tempie 0,15-0,2 na dekad\u0119. W 2024 wzrost temperatury przekroczy\u0142 1,5C powy\u017cej poziomu okresu przedprzemys\u0142owego (1850-1900).<\/p>\n \n <figure>\n <img src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Bez-tytulu.png\" alt=\"Zmiany globalnej temperatury powietrza\" style=\"max-height: 500px;\">\n <figcaption>Rys. 1. Zmiany globalnej temperatury powietrza przy powierzchni Ziemi zrekonstruowane na podstawie danych po\u015brednich oraz na podstawie bezpo\u015brednich obserwacji, zar\u00f3wno w odniesieniu do lat 1850\u20131900, u\u015brednione dekadowo. Pionowy pasek po lewej stronie pokazuje szacowan\u0105 temperatur\u0119 (bardzo prawdopodobny zakres) podczas najcieplejszego okresu wielowiekowego w co najmniej ostatnich 100 000 lat, kt\u00f3ry mia\u0142 miejsce oko\u0142o 6500 lat temu podczas obecnego interglacja\u0142u (holocenu). Ostatni interglacja\u0142, kt\u00f3ry mia\u0142 miejsce oko\u0142o 125 000 lat temu, jest kolejnym najnowszym kandydatem na okres wy\u017cszej temperatury. Te ostatnie ciep\u0142e okresy by\u0142y spowodowane powolnymi (wielotysi\u0105cletnimi) zmianami orbitalnymi. Szare cieniowanie z bia\u0142ymi uko\u015bnymi liniami pokazuje bardzo prawdopodobne zakresy rekonstrukcji temperatury. Adaptacja (Adam Jaczewski) na podstawie IPCC AR6 Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/wg1\/figures\/summary-for-policymakers\/figure-spm-1\/\">Fig. SPM1<\/a>)<\/figcaption>\n <\/figure>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n \n <div class=\"accordion-item\">\n <div class=\"accordion-header\" onclick=\"toggleAccordion(this)\">\n <span>Po co modelowa\u0107 klimat?<\/span>\n <span class=\"accordion-icon\">\u25bc<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"accordion-content\">\n <div class=\"accordion-body\">\n <p>Wyniki modeli klimatu stanowi\u0105 podstaw\u0119 opracowania scenariuszy zmiany klimatu. Na ich podstawie z kolei dokonuje si\u0119 oceny ryzyka zwi\u0105zanego z zagro\u017ceniami klimatycznymi i poziomu negatywnych skutk\u00f3w zmiany klimatu dla spo\u0142ecze\u0144stwa, sektor\u00f3w gospodarki i \u015brodowiska naturalnego. Analizy te stanowi\u0105 podstaw\u0119 plan\u00f3w adaptacji jako strategii adaptacji do zmiany klimatu. Wyniki modeli klimatu stanowi\u0105 istny wk\u0142ad do raport\u00f3w Mi\u0119dzyrz\u0105dowego Zespo\u0142u ds. Zmiany klimatu (IPCC).<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n \n <div class=\"accordion-item\">\n <div class=\"accordion-header\" onclick=\"toggleAccordion(this)\">\n <span>Czym jest numeryczny model klimatu?<\/span>\n <span class=\"accordion-icon\">\u25bc<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"accordion-content\">\n <div class=\"accordion-body\">\n <p>Model klimatu to program komputerowy, kt\u00f3ry stanowi matematyczn\u0105 reprezentacj\u0119 funkcjonowania ziemskiego systemu klimatycznego. Dotyczy to proces\u00f3w w obr\u0119bie sk\u0142adowych systemu klimatycznego, a tak\u017ce du\u017cej liczby wzajemnych oddzia\u0142ywa\u0144 (Rys. 2). Liczba niezb\u0119dnych do wykonania oblicze\u0144 jest bardzo du\u017ca, co oznacza, \u017ce do pracy z modelami potrzebujemy superkomputer\u00f3w i bardzo du\u017cych mocy obliczeniowych.<\/p>\n \n <figure>\n <img src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/schemat_climat.jpg\" alt=\"Schemat element\u00f3w systemu klimatycznego\">\n <figcaption>Rys. 2. Schemat element\u00f3w systemu klimatycznego, zachodz\u0105cych w nim proces\u00f3w i wzajemnych oddzia\u0142ywa\u0144. \u0179r\u00f3d\u0142o: AR4, IPCC.<\/figcaption>\n <\/figure>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n \n <div class=\"accordion-item\">\n <div class=\"accordion-header\" onclick=\"toggleAccordion(this)\">\n <span>Jak dzia\u0142a model klimatu?<\/span>\n <span class=\"accordion-icon\">\u25bc<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"accordion-content\">\n <div class=\"accordion-body\">\n <p>Na model numeryczny sk\u0142adaj\u0105 si\u0119 uk\u0142ady r\u00f3wna\u0144. S\u0105 to r\u00f3wnania ruchu atmosfery, ale r\u00f3wnie\u017c dotycz\u0105ce zachowania energii, przemian fazowych, termodynamiki i wiele innych. W modelach klimatu, istotnym jest r\u00f3wnie\u017c uwzgl\u0119dnienie r\u00f3wnania transferu promieniowania w atmosferze ziemskiej i jego odzia\u0142ywanie z gazami i aerozolami pochodzenia antropogenicznego. Szczeg\u00f3lnie istotne jest poprawne modelowanie efektu cieplarnianego.<\/p>\n \n <p>Warto zaznaczy\u0107, \u017ce numeryczne modele klimatu uwzgl\u0119dniaj\u0105 dobrze nam znane prawa fizyki, podobnie jak numeryczne modele pogody. Prognozy pogody wykonywane na okres kilku- kilkunastu dni s\u0105 do\u015b\u0107 wra\u017cliwe na tzw. warunki pocz\u0105tkowe, czyli dane pomiarowe (temperatura, wilgotno\u015b\u0107, ci\u015bnienie i inne), kt\u00f3re wprowadzamy \u201ena starcie\u201d, w celu uruchomienia modelu numerycznego. Modele pogody s\u0105 wra\u017cliwe na warunki pocz\u0105tkowe - niewielkie zmiany warto\u015bci, mog\u0105 prowadzi\u0107 do znacznych r\u00f3\u017cnic w wynikach prognoz. Modele te jednak zak\u0142adaj\u0105, \u017ce wybrane elementy stanowi\u0105ce warunki brzegowe, nie zmieniaj\u0105 si\u0119 znacz\u0105co w czasie. Dotyczy to m.in. wielko\u015bci promieniowania s\u0142onecznego, czy sk\u0142adu atmosfery (w tym koncentracji CO2). W przypadku modeli klimatu, chcemy wskaza\u0107 jak b\u0119dzie wygl\u0105da\u0142 klimat w przysz\u0142o\u015bci pod wp\u0142ywem zmian tych element\u00f3w (co do wielko\u015bci kt\u00f3rych nie jeste\u015bmy pewni). Z uwagi na to, \u017ce model klimatu ma pom\u00f3c w okre\u015bleniu przeci\u0119tnych warunk\u00f3w w danym okresie, rola warunk\u00f3w pocz\u0105tkowych jest znacznie mniejsza ni\u017c warunk\u00f3w brzegowych.<\/p>\n \n <p>Wspomniane r\u00f3wnania, na kt\u00f3re sk\u0142adaj\u0105 si\u0119 modele, rozwi\u0105zywane s\u0105 dla regularnie roz\u0142o\u017conych punkt\u00f3w, czyli tzw. w\u0119z\u0142\u00f3w siatki obliczeniowej. Zak\u0142ada si\u0119, \u017ce obliczenia w w\u0119z\u0142ach stanowi\u0105 warunki reprezentatywne w obr\u0119bie oczka siatki. Wielko\u015b\u0107 oczek siatki obliczeniowej stanowi\u0107 b\u0119dzie wi\u0119c o szczeg\u00f3\u0142owo\u015bci wykonywanych symulacji. Im g\u0119stsza siatka, tym bardziej szczeg\u00f3\u0142owa i przestrzennie zr\u00f3\u017cnicowana informacja, jednak znacznie wi\u0119kszym kosztem obliczeniowym.<\/p>\n\n <p>G\u0119sto\u015b\u0107 siatki obliczeniowej dostosowujemy wi\u0119c do zastosowania modelu. W sytuacji, gdy analizujemy warunki w skali globalnej, wykorzystujemy siatki o rozdzielczo\u015bci kilkudziesi\u0119ciu kilometr\u00f3w. W przypadku analiz regionalnych, korzystamy z wi\u0119kszych rozdzielczo\u015bci, kilku - kilkunastu kilometr\u00f3w. W tym przypadku symulacje obejmuj\u0105 obszar kontynentu. Dla Europy prowadzone s\u0105 w inicjatywie EURO-CORDEX przez kilkana\u015bcie instytucji, w tym IMGW-PIB.<\/p>\n \n <figure>\n <img src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/siatki_obliczeniowe.jpg\" alt=\"Siatki obliczeniowe modelu\">\n <figcaption>Rys. 3. Siatki obliczeniowe globalnych modeli klimatu wykorzystywanych w raportach IPCC. \u0179r\u00f3d\u0142o: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar4\/wg1\/\">AR4, IPCC<\/a>. FAR, SAR, TAR i AR4 to akronimy raport\u00f3w IPCC, opublikowane odpowiednio w latach 1990, 1996, 2001, 2007<\/figcaption>\n <\/figure>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n \n <div class=\"accordion-item\">\n <div class=\"accordion-header\" onclick=\"toggleAccordion(this)\">\n <span>Sprawdza\u0107, por\u00f3wnywa\u0107 i weryfikowa\u0107<\/span>\n <span class=\"accordion-icon\">\u25bc<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"accordion-content\">\n <div class=\"accordion-body\">\n <p>Model pogody czy klimatu to tylko przybli\u017cenie rzeczywisto\u015bci, kt\u00f3r\u0105 chcemy obserwowa\u0107 lub przewidywa\u0107 jak b\u0119dzie si\u0119 zmienia\u0107. Z tego wzgl\u0119du wyniki modelu wymagaj\u0105 sprawdzenia poprzez por\u00f3wnanie ich z obserwacjami. W przypadku symulacji klimatycznych procedura ta nazywa si\u0119 ewaluacj\u0105 modelu.<\/p>\n \n <p>W modelowaniu klimatu wa\u017cne jest \u2013 skoro model, z kt\u00f3rego korzystamy ma przewidywa\u0107 stan klimatu w odleg\u0142ych horyzontach czasowych i okresach \u2013 by generowane wyniki by\u0142y zgodne ze \u201e\u015brednim stanem klimatu\u201d. Z tego wzgl\u0119du eksperci od modelowania klimatycznego sprawdzaj\u0105 czy wyniki generowane przez modele odpowiadaj\u0105 rzeczywistym trendom zmian - sezonowych b\u0105d\u017a okresowych. Takie por\u00f3wnania mog\u0105 dotyczy\u0107 na przyk\u0142ad \u015bredniej temperatury powietrza zim\u0105 czy zasi\u0119gu lodu morskiego. Najlepszy jest ten model, kt\u00f3ry odtworzy zar\u00f3wno warto\u015bci i tendencje jak najbardziej zgodne ze stanem rzeczywistym. Korzystaj\u0105c z takiego modelu mo\u017cemy nast\u0119pnie przyj\u0105\u0107, \u017ce z wi\u0119kszym prawdopodobie\u0144stwem trafnie przewidzi rozw\u00f3j klimatu w przysz\u0142o\u015bci.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n \n <div class=\"accordion-item\">\n <div class=\"accordion-header\" onclick=\"toggleAccordion(this)\">\n <span>Czy aktualne modele klimatu si\u0119 sprawdzaj\u0105?<\/span>\n <span class=\"accordion-icon\">\u25bc<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"accordion-content\">\n <div class=\"accordion-body\">\n <p>Pomimo niedoskona\u0142o\u015bci w naszym rozumieniu proces\u00f3w rz\u0105dz\u0105cych zjawiskami, kt\u00f3re zachodz\u0105 na Ziemi oraz metod jakich u\u017cywamy do ich opisu w programach komputerowych, wsp\u00f3\u0142czesne modele klimatu trafnie odtwarzaj\u0105 zmian\u0119 klimatu w przesz\u0142o\u015bci. Szczeg\u00f3lnie znamiennym tego dowodem jest efekt uwzgl\u0119dnienia antropogenicznych czynnik\u00f3w, kt\u00f3rych g\u0142\u00f3wnym jest emisja dwutlenku w\u0119gla ze spalania paliw kopalnych. Symulacje takie przewiduj\u0105 trafnie, zgodnie z obserwacjami, wzrost globalnej temperatury powietrza (Rys. 4)<\/p>\n \n <figure>\n <img src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/zmianaglobalnej_temp.png\" alt=\"Zmiana globalnej temperatury powietrza\">\n <figcaption>Rys. 4. Zmiana globalnej temperatury powietrza przy powierzchni Ziemi wed\u0142ug obserwacji i symulacji uwzgl\u0119dniaj\u0105cych antropogeniczne i naturalne czynniki oraz tylko czynniki naturalne w okresie 1850-2020.<\/figcaption>\n <\/figure>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n \n <div id=\"content-en\" style=\"display: none;\">\n <div class=\"accordion\">\n \n <div class=\"accordion-item\">\n <div class=\"accordion-header\" onclick=\"toggleAccordion(this)\">\n <span>Climate from perspectives<\/span>\n <span class=\"accordion-icon\">\u25bc<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"accordion-content\">\n <div class=\"accordion-body\">\n <p>The global increase in average near-surface air temperature has been observed since the beginning of systematic instrumental measurements, i.e., since the mid-nineteenth century. Currently, the temperature has exceeded the highest level in the last 100,000 years. Despite periodic fluctuations, this trend is clearly upward and has accelerated rapidly since the mid-1970s at a rate of 0.15-0.2\u00b0C per decade. In 2024, the temperature increase exceeded 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900).<\/p>\n \n <figure>\n <img src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/reconstructed.png\" alt=\"Changes in global air temperature\" style=\"max-height: 500px;\">\n <figcaption>Fig. 1. Changes in global surface temperature reconstructed from proxy data - paleoclimate archives (solid grey line, years 1\u20132000) and from direct observations (solid black line, 1850\u20132020), both relative to 1850\u20131900 and decadal averaged. The vertical bar on the left shows the estimated temperature (very likely range) during the warmest multi-century period in at least the last 100,000 years, which occurred around 6500 years ago during the current interglacial period (Holocene). The Last Interglacial, around 125,000 years ago, is the next most recent candidate for a period of higher temperature. These past warm periods were caused by slow (multi-millennial) orbital variations. The grey shading with white diagonal lines shows the very likely ranges for the temperature reconstructions. Figure SPM.1 in IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. P\u00e9an, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelek\u00e7i, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY,USA, pp. 3\u221232, doi: 10.1017\/9781009157896.001.]<\/figcaption>\n <\/figure>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n \n <div class=\"accordion-item\">\n <div class=\"accordion-header\" onclick=\"toggleAccordion(this)\">\n <span>What is climate modelling for?<\/span>\n <span class=\"accordion-icon\">\u25bc<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"accordion-content\">\n <div class=\"accordion-body\">\n <p>The results of climate models serve as the basis for developing climate change scenarios. On this basis, the risk associated with climate change and the extent of its negative effects on society, the economy, and the natural environment are assessed. These analyses form the basis of adaptation plans as climate change adaptation strategies. The results of climate models are an important contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n \n <div class=\"accordion-item\">\n <div class=\"accordion-header\" onclick=\"toggleAccordion(this)\">\n <span>Introducing a numerical climate model<\/span>\n <span class=\"accordion-icon\">\u25bc<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"accordion-content\">\n <div class=\"accordion-body\">\n <p>A \u2018climate model\u2019, in simple words, is a computer program that mathematically represents the functioning of the Earth's climate system. This applies to processes within the components of the climate system, as well as to many interactions (Fig. 2). The number of calculations required is very large, which means we need supercomputers and very high computing power to run models.<\/p>\n \n <figure>\n <img src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/scheme.png\" alt=\"Diagram of climate system elements\">\n <figcaption>Fig. 2. The elements, processes taking place in it, and mutual interactions of the climate system. Source: AR4, IPCC.<\/figcaption>\n <\/figure>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n \n <div class=\"accordion-item\">\n <div class=\"accordion-header\" onclick=\"toggleAccordion(this)\">\n <span>A climate model - how it works?<\/span>\n <span class=\"accordion-icon\">\u25bc<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"accordion-content\">\n <div class=\"accordion-body\">\n <p>A numerical model is driven as a system of equations. These equations exemplify atmospheric motion, the conservation of energy, phase transitions, thermodynamics, and many other phenomena. In climate models, it is also important to account for the radiation transfer equation in the Earth's atmosphere and its interactions with anthropogenic gases and aerosols. It is particularly important to correctly model the greenhouse effect.<\/p>\n \n <p>It is worth noting that numerical climate models, like numerical weather models, incorporate the well-known laws of physics. Weather forecasts over several days are quite sensitive to the so-called initial conditions, i.e., measurement data (temperature, humidity, pressure, etc.) that we enter \"at the start\" to launch a numerical model. Weather models are sensitive to initial conditions - small changes in values can lead to significant differences in forecast results. However, these models assume that selected elements constituting boundary conditions do not change significantly over time. These concerns, among others, include the size of solar radiation or the composition of the atmosphere (including CO2 concentration). In the case of climate models, the goal is to indicate what the climate will look like in the future under the influence of changes in these elements (the extent of which we are not sure). Because the climate model is designed to help determine average conditions over a given period, the role of initial conditions is much smaller than that of boundary conditions.<\/p>\n \n <p>The aforementioned equations, which constitute the models, are solved at regularly spaced points, i.e., the computational grid nodes. It is assumed that the calculations at the nodes are representative of the conditions within the mesh. The mesh size of the computational grid will therefore determine the level of detail in the simulations performed. The denser the grid, the more detailed and spatially diverse the information, but the higher the computational cost.<\/p>\n\n <p>Therefore, we adjust the computational grid density based on the model's application. When analysing conditions on a global scale, we use grids with resolutions of several tens of kilometres. For regional analyses, we use higher resolutions, ranging from a few to several kilometres. In this case, the simulations cover the entire continent. For Europe, they are carried out in the EURO-CORDEX initiative by several institutions, including IMWM-NRI.<\/p>\n \n <figure>\n <img src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/grid.png\" alt=\"Model computational grids\">\n <figcaption>Fig. 3. Computational grids of global climate models used in IPCC reports. Source: AR4, IPCC. FAR, SAR, TAR, and AR4 are acronyms for IPCC reports published in 1990, 1996, 2001, and 2007, respectively.<\/figcaption>\n <\/figure>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n \n <div class=\"accordion-item\">\n <div class=\"accordion-header\" onclick=\"toggleAccordion(this)\">\n <span>Check, Compare, and Verify<\/span>\n <span class=\"accordion-icon\">\u25bc<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"accordion-content\">\n <div class=\"accordion-body\">\n <p>It needs to be borne in mind that a weather or climate model is just an approximation of the reality we want to observe or predict how it will change. Therefore, the model's results need to be checked against observations. In climate simulations, this procedure is called model evaluation.<\/p>\n \n <p>In climate modelling, it is important \u2013 since the model we use is designed to predict the state of the climate over distant time horizons \u2013 that the results generated are consistent with the \"mean state of the climate\". For this reason, climate modelling experts check whether the results generated by the models correspond to real trends of change - seasonal or periodic. Such comparisons may concern, for example, the average winter air temperature or the extent of sea ice. The best model is the one that reproduces both values and tendencies as closely as possible to the real state. Using such a model, we can assume it is more likely to accurately predict future climate development.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n \n <div class=\"accordion-item\">\n <div class=\"accordion-header\" onclick=\"toggleAccordion(this)\">\n <span>Are current climate models accurate?<\/span>\n <span class=\"accordion-icon\">\u25bc<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"accordion-content\">\n <div class=\"accordion-body\">\n <p>Despite imperfections in our understanding of the processes governing phenomena on Earth and in the methods we use to model them in computer programs, modern climate models accurately reproduce past climate change. Particularly significant evidence of this is the effect of accounting for anthropogenic factors, the main one being carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels. Such simulations accurately predict, in line with observations, an increase in global air temperature (Fig. 4).<\/p>\n \n <figure>\n <img src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/simulations.png\" alt=\"Change in global air temperature\">\n <figcaption>Fig.4. Changes in global surface temperature over the past 170 years (black line) relative to 1850\u20131900 and annually averaged, compared to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate model simulations (see Box SPM.1) of the temperature response to both human and natural drivers (brown) and to only natural drivers (solar and volcanic activity, green). Solid coloured lines show the multi-model average, and coloured shades show the very likely range of simulations. (See Figure SPM.2 for the assessed contributions to warming). {2.3.1, Cross-Chapter Box 2.3, 3.3, TS.2.2, Cross-Section Box TS.1, Figure 1a}<\/figcaption>\n <\/figure>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n <div class=\"contact\">\n <p id=\"contact-text\">Kontakt: <a href=\"mailto:climate_lab@imgw.pl\">climate_lab@imgw.pl<\/a><\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n <script>\n let currentLanguage = 'pl';\n\n \/\/ Navigation active link logic\n const currentSearch = window.location.search || '?page_id=45309';\n document.querySelectorAll('.nav-link').forEach(link => {\n const linkQuery = link.getAttribute('data-query');\n if (linkQuery === currentSearch) {\n link.classList.add('active');\n }\n });\n\n \/\/ Accordion functionality\n function toggleAccordion(header) {\n const content = header.nextElementSibling;\n const isActive = header.classList.contains('active');\n \n \/\/ Close all accordions in the same parent\n const allHeaders = header.closest('.accordion').querySelectorAll('.accordion-header');\n const allContents = header.closest('.accordion').querySelectorAll('.accordion-content');\n \n allHeaders.forEach(h => h.classList.remove('active'));\n allContents.forEach(c => c.classList.remove('active'));\n \n \/\/ Toggle current accordion\n if (!isActive) {\n header.classList.add('active');\n content.classList.add('active');\n }\n }\n\n \/\/ Language switching functionality\n function switchLanguage(lang) {\n currentLanguage = lang;\n const htmlElement = document.getElementById('html-element');\n \n \/\/ Update HTML lang attribute\n htmlElement.setAttribute('lang', lang);\n \n \/\/ Save language preference to localStorage\n localStorage.setItem('preferredLanguage', lang);\n \n \/\/ Update button states\n document.getElementById('btn-pl').classList.toggle('active', lang === 'pl');\n document.getElementById('btn-en').classList.toggle('active', lang === 'en');\n \n \/\/ Show\/hide content\n document.getElementById('content-pl').style.display = lang === 'pl' ? 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Obecnie temperatura przekroczy\u0142a najwy\u017csz\u0105 od z okresu ostatnich 100 tysi\u0119cy lat. Pomimo […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":""},"yoast_head":"\n<title>Pracownia Fizyki i Modelowania Klimatu - 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\n\t\t\t\n\n\n \n \n FAQ - Pracownia Fizyki i Modelowania Klimatu<\/title>\n \n <link rel=\"stylesheet\" href=\"https:\/\/cdnjs.cloudflare.com\/ajax\/libs\/font-awesome\/6.5.0\/css\/all.min.css\" crossorigin=\"anonymous\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" \/>\n <style>\n * {\n margin: 0;\n padding: 0;\n box-sizing: border-box;\n }\n\n body {\n font-family: Arial, sans-serif;\n background-color: #f5f5f5;\n line-height: 1.6;\n }\n\n \/* Language Switcher *\/\n .language-switcher {\n position: fixed;\n top: 20px;\n right: 20px;\n z-index: 1000;\n display: flex;\n gap: 5px;\n }\n\n .language-switcher button {\n background-color: #002147;\n color: white;\n border: none;\n padding: 8px 12px;\n margin: 0 2px;\n border-radius: 4px;\n cursor: pointer;\n font-weight: 500;\n font-size: 18px;\n transition: all 0.3s ease;\n min-width: 40px;\n display: flex;\n align-items: center;\n justify-content: center;\n }\n\n .language-switcher button:hover {\n background-color: #003366;\n }\n\n 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10px;\n }\n\n .accordion-header {\n font-size: 14px;\n padding: 12px 15px;\n }\n }\n <\/style>\n<\/head>\n<body>\n \n <div class=\"language-switcher\">\n <button onclick=\"switchLanguage('pl')\" id=\"btn-pl\" class=\"active\" title=\"Polski\">\ud83c\uddf5\ud83c\uddf1<\/button>\n <button onclick=\"switchLanguage('en')\" id=\"btn-en\" title=\"English\">\ud83c\uddec\ud83c\udde7<\/button>\n <\/div>\n\n \n <div class=\"header\">\n <img id=\"header-image\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Wizytowka-PFiMK_www.png\" alt=\"Pracownia Fizyki i Modelowania Klimatu\">\n <\/div>\n\n \n <div class=\"nav-bar\">\n <a href=\"\/?page_id=45309\" data-query=\"?page_id=45309\" class=\"nav-link\">\n <span class=\"icon\"><i class=\"fas fa-home\"><\/i><\/span>\n <\/a>\n <a href=\"\/?page_id=45318\" data-query=\"?page_id=45318\" class=\"nav-link\" id=\"nav-about\">O Pracowni<\/a>\n <a href=\"\/?page_id=45603\" data-query=\"?page_id=45603\" class=\"nav-link active\" id=\"nav-faq\">FAQ<\/a>\n <a href=\"\/?page_id=45605\" data-query=\"?page_id=45605\" class=\"nav-link\" id=\"nav-dictionary\">S\u0142ownik<\/a>\n <a href=\"\/?page_id=45610\" data-query=\"?page_id=45610\" class=\"nav-link\" id=\"nav-studies\">Opracowania<\/a>\n <\/div>\n\n \n <div class=\"content\">\n \n <div id=\"content-pl\">\n <div class=\"accordion\">\n \n <div class=\"accordion-item\">\n <div class=\"accordion-header\" onclick=\"toggleAccordion(this)\">\n <span>Modelowanie klimatu - klucz do zrozumienia i adaptacji<\/span>\n <span class=\"accordion-icon\">\u25bc<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"accordion-content\">\n <div class=\"accordion-body\">\n <p>Globalny wzrost \u015bredniej temperatury powietrza przy powierzchni Ziemi obserwuje si\u0119 od pocz\u0105tku systematycznych pomiar\u00f3w instrumentalnych, czyli od po\u0142owy XIX wieku. Obecnie temperatura przekroczy\u0142a najwy\u017csz\u0105 od z okresu ostatnich 100 tysi\u0119cy lat. Pomimo okresowych waha\u0144, trend ten jest jednoznacznie wzrostowy a od po\u0142owy lat 70 XX wieku gwa\u0142townie przyspieszy\u0142 w tempie 0,15-0,2 na dekad\u0119. W 2024 wzrost temperatury przekroczy\u0142 1,5C powy\u017cej poziomu okresu przedprzemys\u0142owego (1850-1900).<\/p>\n \n <figure>\n <img src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Bez-tytulu.png\" alt=\"Zmiany globalnej temperatury powietrza\" style=\"max-height: 500px;\">\n <figcaption>Rys. 1. Zmiany globalnej temperatury powietrza przy powierzchni Ziemi zrekonstruowane na podstawie danych po\u015brednich oraz na podstawie bezpo\u015brednich obserwacji, zar\u00f3wno w odniesieniu do lat 1850\u20131900, u\u015brednione dekadowo. Pionowy pasek po lewej stronie pokazuje szacowan\u0105 temperatur\u0119 (bardzo prawdopodobny zakres) podczas najcieplejszego okresu wielowiekowego w co najmniej ostatnich 100 000 lat, kt\u00f3ry mia\u0142 miejsce oko\u0142o 6500 lat temu podczas obecnego interglacja\u0142u (holocenu). Ostatni interglacja\u0142, kt\u00f3ry mia\u0142 miejsce oko\u0142o 125 000 lat temu, jest kolejnym najnowszym kandydatem na okres wy\u017cszej temperatury. Te ostatnie ciep\u0142e okresy by\u0142y spowodowane powolnymi (wielotysi\u0105cletnimi) zmianami orbitalnymi. Szare cieniowanie z bia\u0142ymi uko\u015bnymi liniami pokazuje bardzo prawdopodobne zakresy rekonstrukcji temperatury. Adaptacja (Adam Jaczewski) na podstawie IPCC AR6 Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/wg1\/figures\/summary-for-policymakers\/figure-spm-1\/\">Fig. SPM1<\/a>)<\/figcaption>\n <\/figure>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n \n <div class=\"accordion-item\">\n <div class=\"accordion-header\" onclick=\"toggleAccordion(this)\">\n <span>Po co modelowa\u0107 klimat?<\/span>\n <span class=\"accordion-icon\">\u25bc<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"accordion-content\">\n <div class=\"accordion-body\">\n <p>Wyniki modeli klimatu stanowi\u0105 podstaw\u0119 opracowania scenariuszy zmiany klimatu. Na ich podstawie z kolei dokonuje si\u0119 oceny ryzyka zwi\u0105zanego z zagro\u017ceniami klimatycznymi i poziomu negatywnych skutk\u00f3w zmiany klimatu dla spo\u0142ecze\u0144stwa, sektor\u00f3w gospodarki i \u015brodowiska naturalnego. Analizy te stanowi\u0105 podstaw\u0119 plan\u00f3w adaptacji jako strategii adaptacji do zmiany klimatu. Wyniki modeli klimatu stanowi\u0105 istny wk\u0142ad do raport\u00f3w Mi\u0119dzyrz\u0105dowego Zespo\u0142u ds. Zmiany klimatu (IPCC).<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n \n <div class=\"accordion-item\">\n <div class=\"accordion-header\" onclick=\"toggleAccordion(this)\">\n <span>Czym jest numeryczny model klimatu?<\/span>\n <span class=\"accordion-icon\">\u25bc<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"accordion-content\">\n <div class=\"accordion-body\">\n <p>Model klimatu to program komputerowy, kt\u00f3ry stanowi matematyczn\u0105 reprezentacj\u0119 funkcjonowania ziemskiego systemu klimatycznego. Dotyczy to proces\u00f3w w obr\u0119bie sk\u0142adowych systemu klimatycznego, a tak\u017ce du\u017cej liczby wzajemnych oddzia\u0142ywa\u0144 (Rys. 2). Liczba niezb\u0119dnych do wykonania oblicze\u0144 jest bardzo du\u017ca, co oznacza, \u017ce do pracy z modelami potrzebujemy superkomputer\u00f3w i bardzo du\u017cych mocy obliczeniowych.<\/p>\n \n <figure>\n <img src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/schemat_climat.jpg\" alt=\"Schemat element\u00f3w systemu klimatycznego\">\n <figcaption>Rys. 2. Schemat element\u00f3w systemu klimatycznego, zachodz\u0105cych w nim proces\u00f3w i wzajemnych oddzia\u0142ywa\u0144. \u0179r\u00f3d\u0142o: AR4, IPCC.<\/figcaption>\n <\/figure>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n \n <div class=\"accordion-item\">\n <div class=\"accordion-header\" onclick=\"toggleAccordion(this)\">\n <span>Jak dzia\u0142a model klimatu?<\/span>\n <span class=\"accordion-icon\">\u25bc<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"accordion-content\">\n <div class=\"accordion-body\">\n <p>Na model numeryczny sk\u0142adaj\u0105 si\u0119 uk\u0142ady r\u00f3wna\u0144. S\u0105 to r\u00f3wnania ruchu atmosfery, ale r\u00f3wnie\u017c dotycz\u0105ce zachowania energii, przemian fazowych, termodynamiki i wiele innych. W modelach klimatu, istotnym jest r\u00f3wnie\u017c uwzgl\u0119dnienie r\u00f3wnania transferu promieniowania w atmosferze ziemskiej i jego odzia\u0142ywanie z gazami i aerozolami pochodzenia antropogenicznego. Szczeg\u00f3lnie istotne jest poprawne modelowanie efektu cieplarnianego.<\/p>\n \n <p>Warto zaznaczy\u0107, \u017ce numeryczne modele klimatu uwzgl\u0119dniaj\u0105 dobrze nam znane prawa fizyki, podobnie jak numeryczne modele pogody. Prognozy pogody wykonywane na okres kilku- kilkunastu dni s\u0105 do\u015b\u0107 wra\u017cliwe na tzw. warunki pocz\u0105tkowe, czyli dane pomiarowe (temperatura, wilgotno\u015b\u0107, ci\u015bnienie i inne), kt\u00f3re wprowadzamy \u201ena starcie\u201d, w celu uruchomienia modelu numerycznego. Modele pogody s\u0105 wra\u017cliwe na warunki pocz\u0105tkowe - niewielkie zmiany warto\u015bci, mog\u0105 prowadzi\u0107 do znacznych r\u00f3\u017cnic w wynikach prognoz. Modele te jednak zak\u0142adaj\u0105, \u017ce wybrane elementy stanowi\u0105ce warunki brzegowe, nie zmieniaj\u0105 si\u0119 znacz\u0105co w czasie. Dotyczy to m.in. wielko\u015bci promieniowania s\u0142onecznego, czy sk\u0142adu atmosfery (w tym koncentracji CO2). W przypadku modeli klimatu, chcemy wskaza\u0107 jak b\u0119dzie wygl\u0105da\u0142 klimat w przysz\u0142o\u015bci pod wp\u0142ywem zmian tych element\u00f3w (co do wielko\u015bci kt\u00f3rych nie jeste\u015bmy pewni). Z uwagi na to, \u017ce model klimatu ma pom\u00f3c w okre\u015bleniu przeci\u0119tnych warunk\u00f3w w danym okresie, rola warunk\u00f3w pocz\u0105tkowych jest znacznie mniejsza ni\u017c warunk\u00f3w brzegowych.<\/p>\n \n <p>Wspomniane r\u00f3wnania, na kt\u00f3re sk\u0142adaj\u0105 si\u0119 modele, rozwi\u0105zywane s\u0105 dla regularnie roz\u0142o\u017conych punkt\u00f3w, czyli tzw. w\u0119z\u0142\u00f3w siatki obliczeniowej. Zak\u0142ada si\u0119, \u017ce obliczenia w w\u0119z\u0142ach stanowi\u0105 warunki reprezentatywne w obr\u0119bie oczka siatki. Wielko\u015b\u0107 oczek siatki obliczeniowej stanowi\u0107 b\u0119dzie wi\u0119c o szczeg\u00f3\u0142owo\u015bci wykonywanych symulacji. Im g\u0119stsza siatka, tym bardziej szczeg\u00f3\u0142owa i przestrzennie zr\u00f3\u017cnicowana informacja, jednak znacznie wi\u0119kszym kosztem obliczeniowym.<\/p>\n\n <p>G\u0119sto\u015b\u0107 siatki obliczeniowej dostosowujemy wi\u0119c do zastosowania modelu. W sytuacji, gdy analizujemy warunki w skali globalnej, wykorzystujemy siatki o rozdzielczo\u015bci kilkudziesi\u0119ciu kilometr\u00f3w. W przypadku analiz regionalnych, korzystamy z wi\u0119kszych rozdzielczo\u015bci, kilku - kilkunastu kilometr\u00f3w. W tym przypadku symulacje obejmuj\u0105 obszar kontynentu. Dla Europy prowadzone s\u0105 w inicjatywie EURO-CORDEX przez kilkana\u015bcie instytucji, w tym IMGW-PIB.<\/p>\n \n <figure>\n <img src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/siatki_obliczeniowe.jpg\" alt=\"Siatki obliczeniowe modelu\">\n <figcaption>Rys. 3. Siatki obliczeniowe globalnych modeli klimatu wykorzystywanych w raportach IPCC. \u0179r\u00f3d\u0142o: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar4\/wg1\/\">AR4, IPCC<\/a>. FAR, SAR, TAR i AR4 to akronimy raport\u00f3w IPCC, opublikowane odpowiednio w latach 1990, 1996, 2001, 2007<\/figcaption>\n <\/figure>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n \n <div class=\"accordion-item\">\n <div class=\"accordion-header\" onclick=\"toggleAccordion(this)\">\n <span>Sprawdza\u0107, por\u00f3wnywa\u0107 i weryfikowa\u0107<\/span>\n <span class=\"accordion-icon\">\u25bc<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"accordion-content\">\n <div class=\"accordion-body\">\n <p>Model pogody czy klimatu to tylko przybli\u017cenie rzeczywisto\u015bci, kt\u00f3r\u0105 chcemy obserwowa\u0107 lub przewidywa\u0107 jak b\u0119dzie si\u0119 zmienia\u0107. Z tego wzgl\u0119du wyniki modelu wymagaj\u0105 sprawdzenia poprzez por\u00f3wnanie ich z obserwacjami. W przypadku symulacji klimatycznych procedura ta nazywa si\u0119 ewaluacj\u0105 modelu.<\/p>\n \n <p>W modelowaniu klimatu wa\u017cne jest \u2013 skoro model, z kt\u00f3rego korzystamy ma przewidywa\u0107 stan klimatu w odleg\u0142ych horyzontach czasowych i okresach \u2013 by generowane wyniki by\u0142y zgodne ze \u201e\u015brednim stanem klimatu\u201d. Z tego wzgl\u0119du eksperci od modelowania klimatycznego sprawdzaj\u0105 czy wyniki generowane przez modele odpowiadaj\u0105 rzeczywistym trendom zmian - sezonowych b\u0105d\u017a okresowych. Takie por\u00f3wnania mog\u0105 dotyczy\u0107 na przyk\u0142ad \u015bredniej temperatury powietrza zim\u0105 czy zasi\u0119gu lodu morskiego. Najlepszy jest ten model, kt\u00f3ry odtworzy zar\u00f3wno warto\u015bci i tendencje jak najbardziej zgodne ze stanem rzeczywistym. Korzystaj\u0105c z takiego modelu mo\u017cemy nast\u0119pnie przyj\u0105\u0107, \u017ce z wi\u0119kszym prawdopodobie\u0144stwem trafnie przewidzi rozw\u00f3j klimatu w przysz\u0142o\u015bci.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n \n <div class=\"accordion-item\">\n <div class=\"accordion-header\" onclick=\"toggleAccordion(this)\">\n <span>Czy aktualne modele klimatu si\u0119 sprawdzaj\u0105?<\/span>\n <span class=\"accordion-icon\">\u25bc<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"accordion-content\">\n <div class=\"accordion-body\">\n <p>Pomimo niedoskona\u0142o\u015bci w naszym rozumieniu proces\u00f3w rz\u0105dz\u0105cych zjawiskami, kt\u00f3re zachodz\u0105 na Ziemi oraz metod jakich u\u017cywamy do ich opisu w programach komputerowych, wsp\u00f3\u0142czesne modele klimatu trafnie odtwarzaj\u0105 zmian\u0119 klimatu w przesz\u0142o\u015bci. Szczeg\u00f3lnie znamiennym tego dowodem jest efekt uwzgl\u0119dnienia antropogenicznych czynnik\u00f3w, kt\u00f3rych g\u0142\u00f3wnym jest emisja dwutlenku w\u0119gla ze spalania paliw kopalnych. Symulacje takie przewiduj\u0105 trafnie, zgodnie z obserwacjami, wzrost globalnej temperatury powietrza (Rys. 4)<\/p>\n \n <figure>\n <img src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/zmianaglobalnej_temp.png\" alt=\"Zmiana globalnej temperatury powietrza\">\n <figcaption>Rys. 4. Zmiana globalnej temperatury powietrza przy powierzchni Ziemi wed\u0142ug obserwacji i symulacji uwzgl\u0119dniaj\u0105cych antropogeniczne i naturalne czynniki oraz tylko czynniki naturalne w okresie 1850-2020.<\/figcaption>\n <\/figure>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n \n <div id=\"content-en\" style=\"display: none;\">\n <div class=\"accordion\">\n \n <div class=\"accordion-item\">\n <div class=\"accordion-header\" onclick=\"toggleAccordion(this)\">\n <span>Climate from perspectives<\/span>\n <span class=\"accordion-icon\">\u25bc<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"accordion-content\">\n <div class=\"accordion-body\">\n <p>The global increase in average near-surface air temperature has been observed since the beginning of systematic instrumental measurements, i.e., since the mid-nineteenth century. Currently, the temperature has exceeded the highest level in the last 100,000 years. Despite periodic fluctuations, this trend is clearly upward and has accelerated rapidly since the mid-1970s at a rate of 0.15-0.2\u00b0C per decade. In 2024, the temperature increase exceeded 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900).<\/p>\n \n <figure>\n <img src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/reconstructed.png\" alt=\"Changes in global air temperature\" style=\"max-height: 500px;\">\n <figcaption>Fig. 1. Changes in global surface temperature reconstructed from proxy data - paleoclimate archives (solid grey line, years 1\u20132000) and from direct observations (solid black line, 1850\u20132020), both relative to 1850\u20131900 and decadal averaged. The vertical bar on the left shows the estimated temperature (very likely range) during the warmest multi-century period in at least the last 100,000 years, which occurred around 6500 years ago during the current interglacial period (Holocene). The Last Interglacial, around 125,000 years ago, is the next most recent candidate for a period of higher temperature. These past warm periods were caused by slow (multi-millennial) orbital variations. The grey shading with white diagonal lines shows the very likely ranges for the temperature reconstructions. Figure SPM.1 in IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. P\u00e9an, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelek\u00e7i, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY,USA, pp. 3\u221232, doi: 10.1017\/9781009157896.001.]<\/figcaption>\n <\/figure>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n \n <div class=\"accordion-item\">\n <div class=\"accordion-header\" onclick=\"toggleAccordion(this)\">\n <span>What is climate modelling for?<\/span>\n <span class=\"accordion-icon\">\u25bc<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"accordion-content\">\n <div class=\"accordion-body\">\n <p>The results of climate models serve as the basis for developing climate change scenarios. On this basis, the risk associated with climate change and the extent of its negative effects on society, the economy, and the natural environment are assessed. These analyses form the basis of adaptation plans as climate change adaptation strategies. The results of climate models are an important contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n \n <div class=\"accordion-item\">\n <div class=\"accordion-header\" onclick=\"toggleAccordion(this)\">\n <span>Introducing a numerical climate model<\/span>\n <span class=\"accordion-icon\">\u25bc<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"accordion-content\">\n <div class=\"accordion-body\">\n <p>A \u2018climate model\u2019, in simple words, is a computer program that mathematically represents the functioning of the Earth's climate system. This applies to processes within the components of the climate system, as well as to many interactions (Fig. 2). The number of calculations required is very large, which means we need supercomputers and very high computing power to run models.<\/p>\n \n <figure>\n <img src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/scheme.png\" alt=\"Diagram of climate system elements\">\n <figcaption>Fig. 2. The elements, processes taking place in it, and mutual interactions of the climate system. Source: AR4, IPCC.<\/figcaption>\n <\/figure>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n \n <div class=\"accordion-item\">\n <div class=\"accordion-header\" onclick=\"toggleAccordion(this)\">\n <span>A climate model - how it works?<\/span>\n <span class=\"accordion-icon\">\u25bc<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"accordion-content\">\n <div class=\"accordion-body\">\n <p>A numerical model is driven as a system of equations. These equations exemplify atmospheric motion, the conservation of energy, phase transitions, thermodynamics, and many other phenomena. In climate models, it is also important to account for the radiation transfer equation in the Earth's atmosphere and its interactions with anthropogenic gases and aerosols. It is particularly important to correctly model the greenhouse effect.<\/p>\n \n <p>It is worth noting that numerical climate models, like numerical weather models, incorporate the well-known laws of physics. Weather forecasts over several days are quite sensitive to the so-called initial conditions, i.e., measurement data (temperature, humidity, pressure, etc.) that we enter \"at the start\" to launch a numerical model. Weather models are sensitive to initial conditions - small changes in values can lead to significant differences in forecast results. However, these models assume that selected elements constituting boundary conditions do not change significantly over time. These concerns, among others, include the size of solar radiation or the composition of the atmosphere (including CO2 concentration). In the case of climate models, the goal is to indicate what the climate will look like in the future under the influence of changes in these elements (the extent of which we are not sure). Because the climate model is designed to help determine average conditions over a given period, the role of initial conditions is much smaller than that of boundary conditions.<\/p>\n \n <p>The aforementioned equations, which constitute the models, are solved at regularly spaced points, i.e., the computational grid nodes. It is assumed that the calculations at the nodes are representative of the conditions within the mesh. The mesh size of the computational grid will therefore determine the level of detail in the simulations performed. The denser the grid, the more detailed and spatially diverse the information, but the higher the computational cost.<\/p>\n\n <p>Therefore, we adjust the computational grid density based on the model's application. When analysing conditions on a global scale, we use grids with resolutions of several tens of kilometres. For regional analyses, we use higher resolutions, ranging from a few to several kilometres. In this case, the simulations cover the entire continent. For Europe, they are carried out in the EURO-CORDEX initiative by several institutions, including IMWM-NRI.<\/p>\n \n <figure>\n <img src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/grid.png\" alt=\"Model computational grids\">\n <figcaption>Fig. 3. Computational grids of global climate models used in IPCC reports. Source: AR4, IPCC. FAR, SAR, TAR, and AR4 are acronyms for IPCC reports published in 1990, 1996, 2001, and 2007, respectively.<\/figcaption>\n <\/figure>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n \n <div class=\"accordion-item\">\n <div class=\"accordion-header\" onclick=\"toggleAccordion(this)\">\n <span>Check, Compare, and Verify<\/span>\n <span class=\"accordion-icon\">\u25bc<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"accordion-content\">\n <div class=\"accordion-body\">\n <p>It needs to be borne in mind that a weather or climate model is just an approximation of the reality we want to observe or predict how it will change. Therefore, the model's results need to be checked against observations. In climate simulations, this procedure is called model evaluation.<\/p>\n \n <p>In climate modelling, it is important \u2013 since the model we use is designed to predict the state of the climate over distant time horizons \u2013 that the results generated are consistent with the \"mean state of the climate\". For this reason, climate modelling experts check whether the results generated by the models correspond to real trends of change - seasonal or periodic. Such comparisons may concern, for example, the average winter air temperature or the extent of sea ice. The best model is the one that reproduces both values and tendencies as closely as possible to the real state. Using such a model, we can assume it is more likely to accurately predict future climate development.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n \n <div class=\"accordion-item\">\n <div class=\"accordion-header\" onclick=\"toggleAccordion(this)\">\n <span>Are current climate models accurate?<\/span>\n <span class=\"accordion-icon\">\u25bc<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"accordion-content\">\n <div class=\"accordion-body\">\n <p>Despite imperfections in our understanding of the processes governing phenomena on Earth and in the methods we use to model them in computer programs, modern climate models accurately reproduce past climate change. Particularly significant evidence of this is the effect of accounting for anthropogenic factors, the main one being carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels. Such simulations accurately predict, in line with observations, an increase in global air temperature (Fig. 4).<\/p>\n \n <figure>\n <img src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/simulations.png\" alt=\"Change in global air temperature\">\n <figcaption>Fig.4. Changes in global surface temperature over the past 170 years (black line) relative to 1850\u20131900 and annually averaged, compared to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate model simulations (see Box SPM.1) of the temperature response to both human and natural drivers (brown) and to only natural drivers (solar and volcanic activity, green). Solid coloured lines show the multi-model average, and coloured shades show the very likely range of simulations. (See Figure SPM.2 for the assessed contributions to warming). {2.3.1, Cross-Chapter Box 2.3, 3.3, TS.2.2, Cross-Section Box TS.1, Figure 1a}<\/figcaption>\n <\/figure>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n <div class=\"contact\">\n <p id=\"contact-text\">Kontakt: <a href=\"mailto:climate_lab@imgw.pl\">climate_lab@imgw.pl<\/a><\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n <script>\n let currentLanguage = 'pl';\n\n \/\/ Navigation active link logic\n const currentSearch = window.location.search || '?page_id=45309';\n document.querySelectorAll('.nav-link').forEach(link => {\n const linkQuery = link.getAttribute('data-query');\n if (linkQuery === currentSearch) {\n link.classList.add('active');\n }\n });\n\n \/\/ Accordion functionality\n function toggleAccordion(header) {\n const content = header.nextElementSibling;\n const isActive = header.classList.contains('active');\n \n \/\/ Close all accordions in the same parent\n const allHeaders = header.closest('.accordion').querySelectorAll('.accordion-header');\n const allContents = header.closest('.accordion').querySelectorAll('.accordion-content');\n \n allHeaders.forEach(h => h.classList.remove('active'));\n allContents.forEach(c => c.classList.remove('active'));\n \n \/\/ Toggle current accordion\n if (!isActive) {\n header.classList.add('active');\n content.classList.add('active');\n }\n }\n\n \/\/ Language switching functionality\n function switchLanguage(lang) {\n currentLanguage = lang;\n const htmlElement = document.getElementById('html-element');\n \n \/\/ Update HTML lang attribute\n htmlElement.setAttribute('lang', lang);\n \n \/\/ Save language preference to localStorage\n localStorage.setItem('preferredLanguage', lang);\n \n \/\/ Update button states\n document.getElementById('btn-pl').classList.toggle('active', lang === 'pl');\n document.getElementById('btn-en').classList.toggle('active', lang === 'en');\n \n \/\/ Show\/hide content\n document.getElementById('content-pl').style.display = lang === 'pl' ? 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Obecnie temperatura przekroczy\u0142a najwy\u017csz\u0105 od z okresu ostatnich 100 tysi\u0119cy lat. Pomimo […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":""},"yoast_head":"\n<title>Pracownia Fizyki i Modelowania Klimatu - 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