{"id":10151,"date":"2022-06-30T19:15:00","date_gmt":"2022-06-30T17:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/10.91.91.143\/wordpress\/?page_id=10151"},"modified":"2025-07-24T00:57:56","modified_gmt":"2025-07-23T22:57:56","slug":"ecmwf-podsumowanie","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/cmm.imgw.pl\/?page_id=10151","title":{"rendered":"ECMWF PODSUMOWANIE"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"10151\" class=\"elementor elementor-10151\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-a70714a elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"a70714a\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-3728202\" data-id=\"3728202\" 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.elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-xxl{font-size:59px}<\/style><h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><a href=\"\/cmm\/?page_id=6948\"><hr style=\"width:50%; margin: auto;\" \/>\n<div id=\"4miesiace\">\n<p><\/p>\nECMWF PODSUMOWANIE\n<p><\/p>\n<hr style=\"width:45%; margin: auto;\" \/><\/a><\/h2>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-e3dc5e3 elementor-section-content-middle elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"e3dc5e3\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-no\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-aca25a5\" data-id=\"aca25a5\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-43385b4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-html\" data-id=\"43385b4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"html.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<!-- Tab links -->\r\n<CENTER>\r\n<div class=\"tab\">\r\n  <button class=\"tablinks\" onclick=\"wrf(event, 'TEMP2M')\" id=\"defaultOpen\">TEMP 2M<\/button>\r\n  <!--<button class=\"tablinks\" onclick=\"wrf(event, 'TEMPGRUNT')\">TEMP GRUNTU<\/button>-->\r\n  <button class=\"tablinks\" onclick=\"wrf(event, 'OPAD')\">OPAD<\/button>\r\n  <button class=\"tablinks\" onclick=\"wrf(event, 'FAQ')\">FAQ<\/button>\r\n  <!--<button class=\"tablinks\" onclick=\"wrf(event, 'WILGOTNOSC')\">WILGOTNO\u015a\u0106<\/button>-->\r\n  <!--<button class=\"tablinks\" onclick=\"wrf(event, 'CISNIENIE')\">CI\u015aNIENIE<\/button>-->\r\n  <!--<button class=\"tablinks\" onclick=\"wrf(event, 'WIATR')\">WIATR<\/button>-->\r\n  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src=\"\/cmm\/wp-content\/uploads\/production\/ecmwf\/ecmwf_5week_maps\/ECMWF_Prec_Prob_10.png\" width=100% \/><\/a>\r\n<a href=\"\/cmm\/wp-content\/uploads\/production\/ecmwf\/ecmwf_5week_maps\/ECMWF_Prec_Prob_20.png\"><img class=\"alignnone size-medium\" src=\"\/cmm\/wp-content\/uploads\/production\/ecmwf\/ecmwf_5week_maps\/ECMWF_Prec_Prob_20.png\" width=100% \/><\/a>\r\n<a href=\"\/cmm\/wp-content\/uploads\/production\/ecmwf\/ecmwf_5week_maps\/ECMWF_Prec_Prob_50.png\"><img class=\"alignnone size-medium\" src=\"\/cmm\/wp-content\/uploads\/production\/ecmwf\/ecmwf_5week_maps\/ECMWF_Prec_Prob_50.png\" width=100% \/><\/a>\r\n<a href=\"\/cmm\/wp-content\/uploads\/production\/ecmwf\/ecmwf_5week_maps\/ECMWF_Prec_Prob_100.png\"><img class=\"alignnone size-medium\" src=\"\/cmm\/wp-content\/uploads\/production\/ecmwf\/ecmwf_5week_maps\/ECMWF_Prec_Prob_100.png\" width=100% \/><\/a>\r\n<a href=\"\/cmm\/wp-content\/uploads\/production\/ecmwf\/ecmwf_5week_maps\/ECMWF_Opad_class.png\"><img class=\"alignnone size-medium\" src=\"\/cmm\/wp-content\/uploads\/production\/ecmwf\/ecmwf_5week_maps\/ECMWF_Opad_class.png\" width=100% \/><\/a>\r\n\r\n<\/div> \r\n\r\n<div id=\"FAQ\" class=\"tabcontent\">\r\n    \r\n    <p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Cz\u0119sto Zadawane Pytania (FAQ)<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><em>Co oznaczaj\u0105 poj\u0119cia &bdquo;anomalia \u015bredniej temperatury powietrza\", &bdquo;anomalia sumy opad&oacute;w atmosferycznych\" ?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Anomali\u0119 \u015bredniej temperatury powietrza oraz anomali\u0119 sumy opad&oacute;w atmosferycznych okre\u015bla si\u0119 na podstawie norm klimatycznych, kt&oacute;re przedstawiaj\u0105 u\u015brednione warunki klimatyczne w Polsce w trzydziestoletnim okresie normalnym 1991-2020.<\/p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Anomalia \u015bredniej temperatury powietrza jest to odchylenie prognozowanej \u015bredniej temperatury powietrza w analizowanym okresie (tutaj tydzie\u0144) od \u015bredniej tygodniowej temperatury z trzydziestoletniego okresu referencyjnego .<\/p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Gdy przewidywana jest <strong>dodania anomalia \u015bredniej temperatury powietrza <\/strong>mo\u017cna zak\u0142ada\u0107, \u017ce prognozowany tydzie\u0144 b\u0119dzie <strong>cieplejszy<\/strong> od \u015bredniej tygodniowej temperatury jaka wyst\u0105pi\u0142a w tych samych tygodniach w latach 1991-2020. &nbsp;Gdy przewidywana jest <strong>ujemna anomalia \u015bredniej temperatury powietrza<\/strong> mo\u017cna zak\u0142ada\u0107, \u017ce prognozowany tydzie\u0144 b\u0119dzie <strong>ch\u0142odniejszy<\/strong> od \u015bredniej tygodniowej temperatury jaka wyst\u0105pi\u0142a w tych samych tygodniach w latach 1991-2020.<\/p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Anomalia sumy opad&oacute;w atmosferycznych jest to stosunek prognozowanej sumy opadu w analizowanym okresie (tutaj tydzie\u0144) do \u015bredniej tygodniowej sumy opadu z trzydziestoletniego okresu referencyjnego .<\/p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Gdy przewidywana jest <strong>anomalia <\/strong><strong>sumy opad&oacute;w atmosferycznych <\/strong><strong>powy\u017cej 100 %<\/strong> <strong>normy wieloletniej<\/strong> mo\u017cna zak\u0142ada\u0107, \u017ce prognozowany tydzie\u0144 b\u0119dzie <strong>bardziej mokry<\/strong> od \u015bredniej tygodniowej sumy opad&oacute;w jaka wyst\u0105pi\u0142a w tych samych tygodniach w latach 1991-2020. Gdy przewidywana jest <strong>anomalia <\/strong><strong>sumy opad&oacute;w atmosferycznych <\/strong><strong>poni\u017cej 100 %<\/strong> <strong>normy wieloletniej<\/strong> mo\u017cna zak\u0142ada\u0107, \u017ce prognozowany tydzie\u0144 b\u0119dzie <strong>bardziej suchy<\/strong> od \u015bredniej tygodniowej sumy opad&oacute;w jaka wyst\u0105pi\u0142a w tych samych tygodniach w latach 1991-2020.<\/p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><em>Co&nbsp;oznaczaj\u0105 poj\u0119cia &bdquo;powy\u017cej normy\", &bdquo;poni\u017cej normy\" i &bdquo;w normie\"?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u015aredni\u0105 tygodniow\u0105 temperatur\u0119 powietrza\/tygodniow\u0105 sum\u0119 opad&oacute;w atmosferycznych dla danego tygodnia prognozuje si\u0119 w odniesieniu do normy wieloletniej przyjmowanej za okres 1991-2020. Warto\u015bci \u015bredniej tygodniowej temperatury\/tygodniowej sumy opad&oacute;w z tego 30-letniego okresu sortuje si\u0119 od najni\u017cszej do najwy\u017cszej, 10 najni\u017cszych warto\u015bci wyznacza \u015bredni\u0105 temperatur\u0119\/sum\u0119 opad&oacute;w w&nbsp;klasie &bdquo;poni\u017cej normy&rdquo;, 10 \u015brodkowych &bdquo;w normie&rdquo;, a 10 najwy\u017cszych &bdquo;powy\u017cej normy&rdquo;.<\/p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Gdy przewidywana jest \u015brednia temperatura\/suma opad&oacute;w:<\/p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">- poni\u017cej normy mo\u017cna zak\u0142ada\u0107, \u017ce prognozowany tydzie\u0144 b\u0119dzie ch\u0142odniejszy\/bardziej suchy od co najmniej 20 obserwowanych, tych samych tygodni w latach 1991-2020,<\/p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">- w normie mo\u017cna zak\u0142ada\u0107, \u017ce prognozowany tydzie\u0144 b\u0119dzie podobny do typowych 10 obserwowanych, tych samych tygodni w latach 1991-2020.<\/p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Nale\u017cy pami\u0119ta\u0107, \u017ce prognozowana \u015brednia temperatura odnosi si\u0119 do \u015bredniej temperatury ca\u0142ego tygodnia, do temperatury notowanej zar&oacute;wno za dnia, jak i w nocy. Prognozowana suma opad&oacute;w odnosi si\u0119 do sumy opad&oacute;w ze wszystkich dni w tygodniu. W prognozach nie jest okre\u015blany rodzaj opadu (\u015bnieg lub deszcz).<\/p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><em>Jakie modele prognostyczne wykorzystuje IMGW-PIB do opracowywania prognoz d\u0142ugoterminowych-tygodniowych?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Opracowuj\u0105c prognoz\u0119 d\u0142ugoterminow\u0105-tygodniow\u0105, IMGW-PIB wykorzystuje model ECMWF EPS 46. Model oparty jest na operacyjnych danych prognostycznych Europejskiego Centrum &nbsp;Prognoz \u015arednioterminowych (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast, ECMWF), kt&oacute;re IMGW-PIB na bie\u017c\u0105co otrzymuje dzi\u0119ki umowie zawartej w 2020 roku. Model ECMWF EPS 46 dostarcza codziennie prognoz\u0119 temperatury powietrza i opadu na nast\u0119pne 46 dni, w postaci tygodniowych rozwi\u0105za\u0144. Prognozowane parametry pozyskuje si\u0119 z 100 realizacji tego samego wyprzedzenia, r&oacute;\u017cni\u0105cych si\u0119 mi\u0119dzy sob\u0105 parametryzacj\u0105 (tzw. prognoza&nbsp;wi\u0105zkowa).<\/p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><em>Dlaczego prognozy d\u0142ugoterminowe obarczone s\u0105 du\u017c\u0105 niepewno\u015bci\u0105 i mog\u0105 si\u0119 od siebie r&oacute;\u017cni\u0107?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Pomimo coraz wi\u0119kszej mocy obliczeniowej superkomputer&oacute;w i szerokiej wiedzy o procesach pogodowych, wci\u0105\u017c nie mo\u017cna unikn\u0105\u0107 b\u0142\u0119d&oacute;w i r&oacute;\u017cnic w prognozach na tak d\u0142ugi okres w przysz\u0142o\u015b\u0107. Wynikaj\u0105 one zar&oacute;wno z ryzyka wyst\u0105pienia nag\u0142ych (cz\u0119sto lokalnych) zjawisk meteorologicznych, kt&oacute;re mog\u0105 zaburzy\u0107 prognozowane procesy pogodowe, jak i z samej r&oacute;\u017cnorodno\u015bci wykorzystywanych w modelach prognostycznych za\u0142o\u017ce\u0144 fizycznych oraz r&oacute;wna\u0144 matematycznych i statystycznych. Nie jest mo\u017cliwy dok\u0142adniejszy opis przewidywanej pogody z tak du\u017cym wyprzedzeniem. Nale\u017cy pami\u0119ta\u0107, \u017ce prognoza jest orientacyjna, ma charakter eksperymentalny i dotyczy \u015bredniego przebiegu dla ca\u0142ego prognozowanego regionu i danego okresu prognostycznego.<\/p>\r\n    \r\n<\/div>\r\n\r\n<div id=\"WILGOTNOSC\" class=\"tabcontent\">\r\n\r\n<a href=\"\/cmm\/wp-content\/uploads\/production\/ecmwf\/ecmwf_5week_maps\/ECMWF_rh2_MAX.png\"><img class=\"alignnone size-medium\" src=\"\/cmm\/wp-content\/uploads\/production\/ecmwf\/ecmwf_5week_maps\/ECMWF_rh2_MAX.png\" width=100% \/><\/a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"\/cmm\/wp-content\/uploads\/production\/ecmwf\/ecmwf_5week_maps\/ECMWF_rh2_MIN.png\"><img class=\"alignnone size-medium\" src=\"\/cmm\/wp-content\/uploads\/production\/ecmwf\/ecmwf_5week_maps\/ECMWF_rh2_MIN.png\" width=100% \/><\/a>\r\n<\/div> \r\n\r\n<div id=\"CISNIENIE\" class=\"tabcontent\">\r\n\r\n<a href=\"\/cmm\/wp-content\/uploads\/production\/ecmwf\/ecmwf_5week_maps\/ECMWF_P0_MAX.png\"><img class=\"alignnone size-medium\" 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100%;-webkit-mask-repeat:var(--divider-pattern-repeat);mask-repeat:var(--divider-pattern-repeat);background-color:var(--divider-color);-webkit-mask-image:var(--divider-pattern-url);mask-image:var(--divider-pattern-url)}.elementor-widget-divider--no-spacing{--divider-pattern-size:auto}.elementor-widget-divider--bg-round{--divider-pattern-repeat:round}.rtl .elementor-widget-divider .elementor-divider__text{direction:rtl}.e-con-inner>.elementor-widget-divider,.e-con>.elementor-widget-divider{width:var(--container-widget-width,100%);--flex-grow:var(--container-widget-flex-grow)}<\/style>\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-divider__text elementor-divider__element\">\n\t\t\t\tUDOST\u0118PNIJ STRON\u0118\t\t\t\t<\/h2>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ECMWF PODSUMOWANIE TEMP 2M OPAD FAQ Cz\u0119sto Zadawane Pytania (FAQ) Co oznaczaj\u0105 poj\u0119cia &bdquo;anomalia \u015bredniej temperatury powietrza&#8221;, &bdquo;anomalia sumy opad&oacute;w atmosferycznych&#8221; ? Anomali\u0119 \u015bredniej temperatury powietrza oraz anomali\u0119 sumy opad&oacute;w atmosferycznych okre\u015bla si\u0119 na podstawie norm klimatycznych, kt&oacute;re przedstawiaj\u0105 u\u015brednione warunki klimatyczne w Polsce w trzydziestoletnim okresie normalnym 1991-2020. Anomalia \u015bredniej temperatury powietrza jest to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"elementor_header_footer","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"0","ocean_second_sidebar":"0","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"off","ocean_display_header":"off","ocean_header_style":"custom","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"0","ocean_custom_header_template":"2993","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"0","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"0","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"0"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.5.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>ECMWF PODSUMOWANIE - Laboratorium Modelowania Meteorologicznego CMOK IMGW-PIB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cmm.imgw.pl\/?page_id=10151\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pl_PL\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ECMWF PODSUMOWANIE - Laboratorium Modelowania Meteorologicznego CMOK IMGW-PIB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"ECMWF PODSUMOWANIE TEMP 2M OPAD FAQ Cz\u0119sto Zadawane Pytania (FAQ) Co oznaczaj\u0105 poj\u0119cia &bdquo;anomalia \u015bredniej temperatury powietrza&#8221;, &bdquo;anomalia sumy opad&oacute;w atmosferycznych&#8221; ? 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